AS Roma vs Inter: AS Roma to win
Roma come into the clash with a perfect four‑game winning streak and a 3.0 expected‑goals mark, while Inter sit on a modest 1.0 xG away. The model hands Roma a 77.1% chance of the three points.
Both clubs enter the Serie A showdown after unbeaten runs – Roma have won each of their last four league outings and Inter have collected three wins and a draw. With Roma’s home record of three goals scored per game and Inter’s spotless defensive away numbers, the statistical picture leans heavily toward the capital side.
Robbo's Verdict
Roma’s 3.0 expected‑goals at home versus Inter’s 1.0 away expected‑goals makes a victory the most probable outcome.
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With AS Roma averaging 3.0 expected goals and Inter averaging 1.0, the model gives a 59.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (AS Roma 3.0 + Inter 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 75.8% chance against 24.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AS Roma at 77.1%, the draw at 13.1%, and Inter at 9.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AS Roma
Roma’s last four league games have been all wins – a 2‑0 away win at Verona, a 4‑0 home demolition of Fiorentina, a 4‑0 victory on the road at Lecce and a 2‑1 home success over Atalanta. Scoring at least two goals in each of those matches demonstrates a potent attack that directly supports a win in this fixture.
Inter
Inter have been unbeaten in four league outings, drawing 3‑3 away at Bologna before securing three straight wins – 4‑1 at home versus Monza, a 1‑0 away win at Cagliari and a 3‑2 home triumph over Napoli. While the results show resilience, they have only managed a single goal on the road in the last three away games, underscoring a limited offensive threat against Roma’s high‑scoring home side.
Head-to-Head
Recent meetings have favoured Inter, highlighted by a 5‑2 win in April 2026, but the overall head‑to‑head record is mixed with narrow victories on both sides, indicating that the current statistical edge for Roma is more compelling than past results.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Inter 5-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 18 Oct 2025 | AS Roma 0-1 Inter | Serie A |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Inter 0-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 20 Oct 2024 | AS Roma 0-1 Inter | Serie A |
| 10 Feb 2024 | AS Roma 2-4 Inter | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
AS Roma: M. Bah (Knee Injury), L. Pellegrini (Thigh Injury), D. Rensch (Muscle Injury)
Inter: F. Dimarco (Knee Injury), D. Spence (Injury), M. Spinacce (Inactive), H. Mkhitaryan (Suspended)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma and Inter drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was AS Roma to win.
What was the final score of AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma 2-2 Inter (full time).
When was AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma played Inter on Sat 19 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Serie A at Stadio Olimpico.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →When you line up a 3.0 xG home side against an away team that only produces one xG, the odds tilt decisively. That statistical gap underpins the model’s 77.1% win probability for Roma.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
