Atalanta vs Bologna: Both teams to score - Yes
Atalanta's 2.0 expected goals meet Bologna's 1.35, setting up a high‑scoring clash where both sides are likely to find the net.
Both clubs come in with recent form that suggests attacking intent – Atalanta have won three of their last five (including a 3‑2 win at Milan) while Bologna have claimed three victories, highlighted by a 3‑2 away win over Napoli.
Robbo's Verdict
The 64 % BTTS probability, driven by Atalanta’s 2.0 xG at home and Bologna’s 1.35 xG away, makes a 'Both teams to score' bet the most supported selection.
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With Atalanta averaging 2.0 expected goals and Bologna averaging 1.35, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Atalanta 2.0 + Bologna 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Atalanta at 52.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and Bologna at 25.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Atalanta
Atalanta’s recent five‑game run includes a 3‑2 victory over AC Milan (away) and a 2‑1 win versus Sassuolo at home, showing they can score multiple goals. The lone loss 0‑1 to Bologna (home) and two draws (0‑0 vs Genoa, 1‑1 vs Fiorentina) indicate occasional defensive lapses, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides scoring in this fixture.
Bologna
Bologna’s form features a 3‑2 away win over Napoli and a 1‑0 away triumph against Atalanta, confirming they can find the net on the road. A 3‑3 home draw with Inter and a narrow 0‑1 loss to Lazio (home) suggest they also concede, supporting a scenario where both teams score.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Atalanta have scored five goals while Bologna have netted three, with recent results including a 0‑1 win for Bologna and a 2‑0 victory for Atalanta, indicating both sides have been capable of scoring.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Atalanta 0-1 Bologna | Serie A |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Bologna 0-2 Atalanta | Serie A |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Atalanta 2-0 Bologna | Serie A |
| 4 Feb 2025 | Atalanta 0-1 Bologna | Coppa Italia |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Bologna 1-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Atalanta: H. Ahanor (Muscle Injury), I. Hien (Muscle Injury), T. Kristensen (Ankle Injury), K. Sulemana (Knee Injury)
Bologna: N. Casale (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta 1-0 Bologna (full time).
When was Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta played Bologna on Mon 31 Aug · 19:45 BST in the Serie A at New Balance Arena.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →With both teams demonstrating the ability to breach the opposition’s defence in recent fixtures, the most compelling model signal points to both sides finding the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
