Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach: SCR Altach to win
Altach head into Lustenau with a 1.35 xG edge over the hosts' 1.0, and the model gives them a 44.8 % chance of victory. Lustenau’s recent form and defensive record make a win unlikely.
Both clubs have struggled for consistency, but Altach’s away performances have been markedly poorer than their home displays, while Lustenau have failed to convert chances at home this season.
Lars's Verdict
Altach’s 1.35 xG versus Lustenau’s 1.0 xG, together with a 60 % win rate in recent head‑to‑heads, underpins the model’s highest win probability for Altach.
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With Austria Lustenau averaging 1.0 expected goals and SCR Altach averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Austria Lustenau 1.0 + SCR Altach 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Austria Lustenau at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and SCR Altach at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Austria Lustenau
Lustenau’s last five league results read L‑W‑D‑L‑L, including a 2‑1 home win over Wolfsberger AC and a 0‑4 home defeat to WSG Wattens. The win shows they can breach defenses, but the heavy loss and two recent away defeats underline a fragile defence that limits their chances of holding off Altach, supporting the view that a win is unlikely.
SCR Altach
Altach have gone W‑L‑L‑L‑L in their last five, with the sole win a 3‑1 home triumph over WSG Wattens and a 0‑1 away loss to Sturm Graz. The solitary win demonstrates they can score when in form, while the string of defeats, especially on the road, highlights a reliance on a single strong performance to secure the win, aligning with the model’s moderate but highest win probability.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Altach have won three times (0‑1 on 13 Apr 2024, 3‑0 on 5 Dec 2023, 3‑0 on 26 Aug 2023) and drawn twice, giving them a clear historical edge that backs the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 May 2024 | SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Austria Lustenau 0-1 SCR Altach | Bundesliga |
| 5 Dec 2023 | SCR Altach 3-0 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Austria Lustenau 0-3 SCR Altach | Bundesliga |
| 27 May 2023 | SCR Altach 1-1 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Austria Lustenau won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was SCR Altach to win.
What was the final score of Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Austria Lustenau 2-0 SCR Altach (full time).
When was Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Austria Lustenau played SCR Altach on Sat 19 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Planet Pure Stadion.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →The combination of a superior expected‑goal rating and a head‑to‑head record that favours Altach makes a victory the most probable outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
