Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau: Under 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna average 1.35 expected goals against Lustenau’s 1.0, yet both clubs sit on low‑scoring recent runs. The model puts the under‑2.5 goal market at 58.3% probability, the clearest edge available.
Both teams arrive with scant firepower: Vienna have failed to score at home in their last two league games, while Lustenau have managed only a single goal in each of their two recent away outings. This defensive backdrop sets the tone for a tight encounter.
Lars's Verdict
The match’s combined expected goals of 2.35, coupled with each side’s recent defensive records, makes an under‑2.5 outcome the most probable result.
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With Austria Vienna averaging 1.35 expected goals and Austria Lustenau averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Austria Vienna 1.35 + Austria Lustenau 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Austria Vienna at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Austria Lustenau at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Austria Vienna
Vienna’s last five league results include a 0‑3 loss to Wolfsberger (A), a 0‑2 defeat to Lask Linz (H), a 2‑0 win at Hartberg (A), a 1‑4 loss to Salzburg (A) and a 0‑1 loss to Wattens (H). Four of those five games produced three or fewer goals total, indicating they struggle to both score and keep games open – a pattern that supports an under‑2.5 pick.
Austria Lustenau
Lustenau’s recent five fixtures feature a 1‑2 loss at Grazer AK (A), a 1‑1 draw at Sturm Graz (A), alongside home results of 1‑1 vs Ried, 2‑1 over Wolfsberger and a 0‑4 defeat to Wattens. In both away games they managed only one goal while conceding at least two, reinforcing the likelihood of a low‑scoring affair.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head on 3 May 2024 saw Lustenau beat Vienna 2‑0, while the previous meeting was a 1‑1 draw. Earlier results include a 5‑0 Vienna win in June 2023, but the latest matches trend toward few goals, aligning with an under‑2.5 outcome.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2024 | Austria Lustenau 2-0 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 6 Apr 2024 | Austria Vienna 1-1 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 4 Nov 2023 | Austria Vienna 1-0 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 6 Aug 2023 | Austria Lustenau 0-2 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 11 Jun 2023 | Austria Vienna 5-0 Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Under 2.5 goals. The match’s combined expected goals of 2.35, coupled with each side’s recent defensive records, makes an under‑2.5 outcome the most probable result.
What does the model give Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Austria Vienna a 44.8% chance, the draw 27.5%, and Austria Lustenau 27.7% to win.
When is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna play Austria Lustenau on Sun 13 Sep · 13:30 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Generali Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →With both sides struggling to find the net and the model assigning a 58.3% chance to under‑2.5 goals, the safest read is a low‑scoring match.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
