Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens: Austria Vienna to win
Austria Vienna sit at a modest 1.35 expected goals versus Wattens' 1.0, and the model rates Vienna's win chance at 44.8%. With Vienna’s home scoring at zero this season, the odds tilt toward a narrow victory.
Both clubs come in from limited recent action – Vienna recorded a loss, another loss and a win in their last three league outings (L 0‑3 vs Wolfsberger AC, L 0‑2 vs Lask Linz, W 2‑0 vs TSV Hartberg). Wattens managed a draw and two defeats (D 1‑1 vs Sturm Graz, L 1‑3 vs SCR Altach, L 0‑3 vs Red Bull Salzburg). The contrast in form underlines an imbalance heading into the match.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Vienna a 44.8% chance of victory, the highest of the three outcomes, driven by their superior expected goals and Wattens' poor away defence.
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With Austria Vienna averaging 1.35 expected goals and WSG Wattens averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Austria Vienna 1.35 + WSG Wattens 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Austria Vienna at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and WSG Wattens at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna's recent trio of results includes a 0‑3 loss to Wolfsberger AC and a 0‑2 defeat to Lask Linz, both highlighting a lack of firepower at home (home goals‑for average 0.0). Their 2‑0 away win over TSV Hartberg shows they can score when needed, suggesting they have the capacity to break the deadlock in this fixture.
WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens have drawn 1‑1 with Sturm Graz before suffering 1‑3 to SCR Altach and 0‑3 to Red Bull Salzburg, indicating a trend of conceding heavily on the road (away goals‑against average 3.0). Their away scoring rate of 1.0 goals per game is modest, pointing to limited threat against Vienna's defence.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Vienna have edged Wattens with a 2‑3 win on 2025‑10‑18 and a 3‑0 victory on 2024‑10‑26, while the most recent clash was a 0‑0 draw. The head‑to‑head record therefore leans toward a Vienna win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2025 | Austria Vienna 0-0 WSG Wattens | Bundesliga |
| 18 Oct 2025 | WSG Wattens 2-3 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 16 Mar 2025 | WSG Wattens 0-2 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Austria Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens | Bundesliga |
| 23 Apr 2024 | WSG Wattens 1-0 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Austria Vienna to win.
What was the final score of Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna 0-1 WSG Wattens (full time).
When was Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna played WSG Wattens on Wed 2 Sep · 17:30 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Generali Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →Given the xG gap, Vienna’s higher win probability and the defensive woes shown by Wattens away, the logical read points to a Vienna win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
