AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II: Over 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar arrive with a 3.5 expected‑goals rate versus Willem II’s 1.0, and the model puts the home side’s win probability at 82.3%. The numbers also point to a high‑scoring affair.
Both sides come into the fixture on opposite trajectories: AZ have won their last four league matches, while Willem II have dropped two and drawn one. The contrast in recent results sets the stage for a clear disparity in quality.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns an 81.7% probability to over 2.5 goals, reflecting AZ’s high expected‑goals output and Willem II’s defensive frailty.
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With AZ Alkmaar averaging 3.5 expected goals and Willem II averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.5 (AZ Alkmaar 3.5 + Willem II 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 81.7% chance against 18.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AZ Alkmaar at 82.3%, the draw at 10.1%, and Willem II at 6.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-0 at 7.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AZ Alkmaar
AZ’s last four league wins include a 2‑0 home victory over ADO Den Haag and a 5‑2 home thrashing of GO Ahead Eagles, showing they can both start and finish strongly. Those wins demonstrate a consistent ability to find the net, which feeds directly into the high expected‑goals figure and supports the over‑2.5 goal pick.
Willem II
Willem II have suffered two 1‑4 defeats – versus GO Ahead Eagles away and NEC Nijmegen at home – before drawing 2‑2 with Heerenveen. Conceding four goals in both recent losses highlights a porous defence, reinforcing the likelihood of a high‑scoring game.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, AZ have won three, lost one and drawn one, including a 2‑0 win in 2025; the pattern of AZ scoring multiple goals in head‑to‑head matches backs the over‑2.5 expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2025 | Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 10 Nov 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 20 Mar 2022 | Willem II 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 18 Dec 2021 | AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 3 Apr 2021 | Willem II 0-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
AZ Alkmaar: D. Kasius (Groin Injury), S. Resink (Knee Injury), M. Sin (Inactive), J. Clasie (Injury)
Willem II: L. Abildgaard (Inactive), A. Culum (Foot Injury), T. Didillon Hodl (Hamstring Injury), A. Lachkar (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II (full time).
When was AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar played Willem II on Fri 11 Sep · 19:00 BST in the Eredivisie at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →Given the stark gap in goal expectancy and the recent form trends, the most logical read is that the match will exceed two and a half goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
