Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa: Başakşehir to win
Başakşehir's 2.0 expected goals against Kasımpaşa's 1.0 set up a clear advantage, reinforced by a 60.5% win probability from our model.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent runs – Başakşehir on a two‑win streak before a narrow loss, while Kasımpaşa have alternated between draws and a win, suggesting inconsistency on the road.
Lars's Verdict
The model gives Başakşehir a 60.5% chance of victory, driven by their superior xG and unbeaten home defensive stats.
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With Başakşehir averaging 2.0 expected goals and Kasımpaşa averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Başakşehir 2.0 + Kasımpaşa 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Başakşehir at 60.5%, the draw at 21.2%, and Kasımpaşa at 18.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Başakşehir
Başakşehir's recent league form reads WWL, highlighted by a 2‑1 away win over Gaziantep FK and a 2‑0 home victory against Kocaelispor. Those two wins showcase a consistent ability to find the net and keep clean sheets, supporting a win outlook for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa's five‑game stretch of DLWDW includes a 1‑0 home win over Galatasaray and a 1‑1 draw at Trabzonspor. The win against a strong side shows occasional potency, but the surrounding draws and loss illustrate volatility that undermines their chances of beating Başakşehir.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Başakşehir have won four, including a recent 4‑0 thrashing, confirming a dominant head‑to‑head trend that aligns with the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2026 | Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Kasımpaşa 1-3 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 18 May 2025 | Kasımpaşa 2-3 Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 23 Dec 2024 | Başakşehir 2-2 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 5 May 2024 | Başakşehir 4-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Başakşehir: No notable injury concerns on record.
Kasımpaşa: K. Corekci (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Başakşehir to win.
What was the final score of Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa (full time).
When was Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir played Kasımpaşa on Sun 30 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Süper Lig at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →The combination of higher expected goals, a solid home defensive record, and a 60.5% model win probability points to a straightforward home win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
