Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK: Çorum FK to win
Beşiktaş's 1.0 expected goals meet Çorum FK's 2.0 expected goals, while the model assigns a 60.5% win probability to the visitors. The numbers point to a clear advantage for Çorum.
Both sides come in with contrasting recent form – Beşiktaş has a win‑loss pattern over its last two league outings, while Çorum FK has drawn and lost. The visitors' higher scoring rate and the model’s win odds set the stage for an upset at the Süper Lig.
Lars's Verdict
The model gives Çorum a 60.5% chance to win, backed by a superior expected goals figure of 2.0 versus Beşiktaş’s 1.0.
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With Beşiktaş averaging 1.0 expected goals and Çorum FK averaging 2.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Beşiktaş 1.0 + Çorum FK 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Beşiktaş at 18.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and Çorum FK at 60.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş’s recent league form is a win then a loss (W 1‑0 vs Eyüpspor, L 0‑1 vs Alanyaspor). The 1‑0 win shows they can keep a clean sheet, yet the 0‑1 loss demonstrates vulnerability when playing away, suggesting limited offensive firepower at home for this fixture.
Çorum FK
Çorum FK have drawn 2‑2 away at Galatasaray and then lost 0‑1 at home to Kasımpaşa. The 2‑2 draw proves they can find the net on the road, while the narrow home defeat shows they can also be held to a single goal, reinforcing their overall scoring threat for this match.
Team News (Pregame)
Beşiktaş: L. Trossard (Injury), E. Ricardo (Off the roster)
Çorum FK: A. Kyziridis (Red Card), S. Osmanoglu (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK?
Beşiktaş won 6-2. Our pre-match pick was Çorum FK to win.
What was the final score of Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK?
Beşiktaş 6-2 Çorum FK (full time).
When was Beşiktaş vs Çorum FK?
Beşiktaş played Çorum FK on Mon 31 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Süper Lig at Besiktas Park.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →With the model heavily favoring Çorum and the goal expectations tilted toward the visitors, the logical pick is a Çorum FK victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
