Bologna vs Sassuolo: Bologna to win
Bologna head into the Serie A opener with a 1.35 xG edge over Sassuolo’s 1.0. The model rates a Bologna win at 44.8% versus Sassuolo’s 27.7%, making the home side the clear favorite.
Both sides have limited recent data – Bologna’s last four league outings read WWDL, while Sassuolo have logged LLW. The contrast in recent results sets the tone for a clash where Bologna’s momentum meets Sassuolo’s struggle to find form.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Bologna a 44.8% chance of victory versus Sassuolo’s 27.7%, driven by a higher xG rating and a better recent run.
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With Bologna averaging 1.35 expected goals and Sassuolo averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Bologna 1.35 + Sassuolo 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Bologna at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Sassuolo at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Bologna
Bologna’s last four league results include a 3-2 away win over Napoli and a 1-0 away victory against Atalanta, showing they can score multiple goals on the road. A 3-3 home draw with Inter and a 0-1 home loss to Lazio illustrate occasional defensive lapses, meaning their recent form suggests both scoring potential and vulnerability, reinforcing a win probability that hinges on outscoring Sassuolo.
Sassuolo
Sassuolo’s recent run features a 0-1 away loss to Parma and a 1-2 away defeat at Atalanta, both highlighting defensive frailties. Their sole win, a 2-1 home triumph over Torino, shows they can produce goals but struggle to keep clean sheets, supporting a scenario where they are likely to concede more than they score.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent meeting on 15 March 2026, Bologna edged Sassuolo 1-0, a result that aligns with the model’s current win bias for Bologna.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna | Serie A |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Bologna 4-2 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Sassuolo 1-1 Bologna | Serie A |
| 8 May 2023 | Sassuolo 1-1 Bologna | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Bologna: N. Casale (Muscle Injury), O. El Azzouzi (Thigh Injury)
Sassuolo: D. Boloca (Muscle Injury), F. Cande (Knee Injury), I. Kone (Broken Leg), Y. Paz (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Bologna and Sassuolo drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Bologna to win.
What was the final score of Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Bologna 2-2 Sassuolo (full time).
When was Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Bologna played Sassuolo on Sun 6 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Serie A at TBC.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →With the xG gap and Bologna’s superior recent form, the model’s highest probability points to a home win, aligning with the club’s stronger recent performances.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
