Bologna vs Torino: Torino to win
Bologna's expected 1.0 xG at home meets Torino's 1.5 xG on the road, yet the model gives Torino a 48.8% chance to win. The numbers suggest an edge for the visitors despite a recent head‑to‑head bias toward the hosts.
Both sides arrive with modest form – Bologna with two draws and two losses in their last five, Torino with three defeats and a win. Their recent meetings have largely favoured Bologna, but the current statistical picture points elsewhere.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates Torino’s win probability at 48.8% versus Bologna’s 25.2%, driven by Torino’s higher expected‑goals and recent away form.
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With Bologna averaging 1.0 expected goals and Torino averaging 1.5, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Bologna 1.0 + Torino 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Bologna at 25.2%, the draw at 26.0%, and Torino at 48.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Bologna
Bologna’s last five league results (D‑L‑L‑D) include a 3‑3 draw against Inter at home and a 0‑1 loss to Lazio at home, followed by a 0‑1 defeat away at Atalanta and a 2‑2 home draw with Sassuolo. Scoring five goals while conceding seven shows a leaky defence and modest attack, which undercuts their chances of securing a win here.
Torino
Torino’s recent form (D‑L‑L‑W) features a 2‑2 draw versus Juventus at home, a 1‑2 home loss to AC Milan, another 1‑2 away loss to Sassuolo, and a 2‑1 away win over Fiorentina. The three defeats highlight defensive frailties, but the win against Fiorentina demonstrates they can convert their 1.5 away xG into goals, supporting a positive outlook for them on the road.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Bologna have won three (including a 2‑0 win in December) and drawn two, with Torino yet to secure a victory, suggesting a historical edge for Bologna that the model still discounts in favor of Torino’s current form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Torino 1-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Bologna 0-0 Torino | Serie A |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Bologna 3-2 Torino | Serie A |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Torino 0-2 Bologna | Serie A |
| 3 May 2024 | Torino 0-0 Bologna | Serie A |
Team News
Bologna: A. Dovbyk (Muscle Injury), O. El Azzouzi (Thigh Injury), R. Orsolini (Injury), N. Zortea (Hip Injury)
Torino: F. Israel (Shoulder Injury), P. Pellegri (Knee Injury), C. Casadei (Rest), S. Coco (Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Bologna vs Torino?
Torino to win. The model rates Torino’s win probability at 48.8% versus Bologna’s 25.2%, driven by Torino’s higher expected‑goals and recent away form.
What does the model give Bologna vs Torino?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Bologna a 25.2% chance, the draw 26.0%, and Torino 48.8% to win.
When is Bologna vs Torino?
Bologna play Torino on Sat 19 Sep · 14:00 BST in the Serie A at TBC.
Are there any injury concerns for Bologna vs Torino?
Bologna: A. Dovbyk (Muscle Injury), O. El Azzouzi (Thigh Injury), R. Orsolini (Injury), N. Zortea (Hip Injury). Torino: F. Israel (Shoulder Injury), P. Pellegri (Knee Injury), C. Casadei (Rest), S. Coco (Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →The statistical tilt toward Torino’s superior expected‑goals and recent away win outweighs Bologna’s home advantage, making a Torino victory the most probable outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
