Brann vs Ham-Kam: Brann draw no bet
Brann head into the match with the strongest expected goal output (1.8 xG) in the league, while Ham‑Kam sit at 1.3. The model gives Brann a 49.2% win chance and a 23.1% draw probability, making a draw‑no‑bet on the home side compelling.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form – Brann have bounced back from an opening loss to string together three wins in five, whereas Ham‑Kam have endured three straight defeats before a solitary win. The fixture pits Brann’s attacking edge against a defensively porous Ham‑Kam side that concedes 1.9 goals on the road.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Brann’s win chance at 49.2% and the draw at 23.1%, meaning a draw‑no‑bet eliminates the draw risk while preserving the nearly‑50% upside.
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With Brann averaging 1.8 expected goals and Ham-Kam averaging 1.3, the model gives a 60.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.1 (Brann 1.8 + Ham-Kam 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 59.9% chance against 40.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Brann at 49.2%, the draw at 23.1%, and Ham-Kam at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Brann
Brann’s recent five-game run (L 1‑2 vs Sarpsborg 08 (H), W 2‑1 vs Start (H), W 2‑1 vs Molde (A), L 2‑3 vs Valerenga (H), W 3‑2 vs Rosenborg (H)) shows they rebound quickly after setbacks, with three wins in the last four matches, indicating a resilient attack that should convert their 1.8 xG into goals. The two recent wins, especially the 3‑2 victory over Rosenborg, demonstrate they can both score and keep the margin tight, supporting a Brann win in this fixture.
Ham-Kam
Ham‑Kam’s last five results (L 1‑4 vs Tromso (H), L 0‑3 vs Bodo/Glimt (A), L 0‑1 vs Sarpsborg 08 (A), W 3‑0 vs Valerenga (A), D 1‑1 vs Aalesund (H)) reveal a three‑match losing streak broken only by a dominant away win, but the overall trend is defensive frailty and low scoring, which aligns with the model’s lower win probability for them.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Brann have won four times, including a 5‑1 thrashing on 6 April 2026, while Ham‑Kam have managed only a single 1‑1 draw, reinforcing Brann’s dominance in this head‑to‑head record.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Ham-Kam 1-5 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Brann 3-1 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 5 Jul 2025 | Ham-Kam 1-1 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 1 Jun 2024 | Ham-Kam 1-2 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 17 Apr 2024 | Brann 1-0 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Brann: N. Boakye (Knee Injury), S. Opsahl (Foot Injury), J. Torsvik (Ankle Injury), E. Gudmundsson (Knee Injury)
Ham-Kam: N. Alexandersson (Injury), H. Opsahl (Injury), A. Ekeroth (Leg Injury), L. Mares (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Brann won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Brann draw no bet.
What was the final score of Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Brann 3-0 Ham-Kam (full time).
When was Brann vs Ham-Kam?
Brann played Ham-Kam on Sun 16 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Brann Stadion.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →Given the clear goal differential and a draw probability that cushions the risk, betting on Brann with a draw‑no‑bet safety net aligns with the model’s strongest probability edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
