Fredrikstad FK vs Sandefjord: No clear edge – skip
Fredrikstad sit on a 1.5 xG home advantage while Sandefjord manage only 1.0 xG on the road. The model gives Fredrikstad a 48.8% chance to win, Sandefjord 25.2% and a draw 26.0%, but the market overvalues the draw at 27.8%.
Both sides enter with thin margins – Fredrikstad scraped a 1-1 draw against Sandefjord last time out, while Sandefjord have picked up results via a string of narrow scorelines. Recent form for both clubs has been tight, making this one hard to call on paper.
Lars's Verdict
The draw is the only market with quoted odds, and its implied probability exceeds the model’s estimate, meaning there is no positive edge to exploit.
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With Fredrikstad FK averaging 1.5 expected goals and Sandefjord averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Fredrikstad FK 1.5 + Sandefjord 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fredrikstad FK at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Sandefjord at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fredrikstad FK
Fredrikstad’s recent run reads D‑W‑L‑L‑L, highlighted by a 2‑1 home win over Start followed by three consecutive defeats, including a 0‑2 loss to Lillestrom and a 0‑4 drubbing at Rosenborg. The solitary win came against a mid‑table side, suggesting the team’s attacking output of 1.5 xG has not translated into consistent points, which weakens any case for a dominant home win.
Sandefjord
Sandefjord’s form is D‑L‑D‑L‑L, with a 2‑2 home draw against Ham‑Kam and a 0‑3 home loss to Bodo/Glimt framing the sequence. Their away record shows a 1‑2 loss at Molde and a 1‑2 defeat at Viking, indicating they struggle to pick up points on the road and concede heavily, reinforcing the low‑scoring, draw‑prone outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Fredrikstad have secured two wins (3‑1 in April 2025 and 1‑0 in December 2024) and three draws, the most recent being a 1‑1 stalemate in May 2026, underscoring the likelihood of a tight game.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 May 2026 | Sandefjord 1-1 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Sandefjord 0-0 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Fredrikstad 3-1 Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Sandefjord 2-2 Fredrikstad | Friendlies Clubs |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Sandefjord 0-1 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Fredrikstad FK: S. Kvile (Knee Injury), S. Leach (Injury), K. Okpaleke (Injury), S. Sorlokk (Foot Injury)
Sandefjord: F. Loftesnes-Bjune (Thigh Injury), J. Vester (Red Card), J. Dunsby (Thigh Injury), H. Krogelien (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fredrikstad FK vs Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad FK won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was No clear edge – skip.
What was the final score of Fredrikstad FK vs Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad FK 1-0 Sandefjord (full time).
When was Fredrikstad FK vs Sandefjord?
Fredrikstad FK played Sandefjord on Sat 1 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Fredrikstad Stadion.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →Given the model’s 26% draw probability versus the market’s 27.8% implied, the draw is overpriced, leaving no clear value on the board today.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
