IK Start vs Viking FK: IK Start to win
Start’s model win probability of 26.9% vastly exceeds the market‑implied 17.2% from Tipico’s 5.8 odds, delivering clear value. With both sides averaging around one goal per game, the match is likely to be tight enough for the underdog to scrape a win.
Both clubs enter the first round of the Eliteserien with contrasting ambitions – Start looking to cement a home‑ground foothold, while Viking aim to continue their strong away run. The kickoff at 17:00 BST will decide early momentum in a league where every point counts.
Lars's Verdict
Back Start to win at 5.8, because the model’s 26.9% win probability gives a sizable edge over the market’s 17.2% implied chance.
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With IK Start averaging 1.0 expected goals and Viking FK averaging 1.4, the model gives a 52.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 47.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (IK Start 1.0 + Viking FK 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IK Start at 26.9%, the draw at 27.0%, and Viking FK at 46.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IK Start
Start’s recent five‑game run reads W‑L‑L‑L‑W, highlighted by a 2‑0 home win over Valerenga and a 2‑1 away victory at Kristiansund. Those two wins show they can score early and protect a lead, which is exactly what is needed to pull off an upset against a stronger Viking side.
Viking FK
Viking arrive on a WLWWD run, featuring three consecutive 2‑1 away wins against Kristiansund, Sandefjord and Lillestrom. Their ability to win by a single goal away demonstrates they can edge out opponents, but the recent 1‑1 draw at Aalesund hints at a potential slip in a tightly contested match like this one.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have heavily favoured Viking, including a 6‑3 thrashing in May and a 4‑0 win in February, yet Start managed a 4‑3 win in March, showing they can produce goals even when outmatched.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Viking 6-3 Start | Eliteserien |
| 6 Feb 2026 | Viking 4-0 Start | Friendlies Clubs |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Start 4-3 Viking | Friendlies Clubs |
| 25 Apr 2021 | Viking 3-3 Start | Friendlies Clubs |
| 28 Nov 2020 | Viking 4-1 Start | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
IK Start: F. Lien (Foot Injury), K. Tonnesen (Leg Injury), J. Torkildsen (Injury), J. Meyer (Groin Injury)
Viking FK: V. Berisha (Injury), H. Falchener (Thigh Injury), M. Roseth (Knee Injury), G. Stensness (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won IK Start vs Viking FK?
Viking FK won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was IK Start to win.
What was the final score of IK Start vs Viking FK?
IK Start 0-3 Viking FK (full time).
When was IK Start vs Viking FK?
IK Start played Viking FK on Sat 1 Aug · 17:00 BST in the Eliteserien at TBC.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →That statistical edge, combined with Start’s recent ability to win tight games, makes the home side a worthwhile bet despite the odds favoring Viking.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
