Brann vs Lillestrom: Brann to win
Brann boast an expected‑goals rate of 1.9 per game against Lillestrom's 1.0, and the model rates a 58.4% chance of a Brann victory. Both sides' recent form and head‑to‑head history reinforce that edge.
Both clubs enter this Eliteserien clash on divergent trajectories: Brann have rebounded with two wins in their last three league outings, while Lillestrom have failed to register a win in five matches.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 58.4% win probability and Brann’s superior xG and recent form make a victory the most likely result.
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With Brann averaging 1.9 expected goals and Lillestrom averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 46.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.9 (Brann 1.9 + Lillestrom 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 55.4% chance against 44.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Brann at 58.4%, the draw at 22.1%, and Lillestrom at 19.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Brann
Brann’s recent run includes a 3‑2 win over Rosenborg and a 3‑0 demolition of Ham‑Kam, demonstrating an ability to score multiple goals. Even their 2‑3 loss to Valerenga showed they can still find the net, while a 0‑0 draw at Sandefjord capped a solid defensive spell. This blend of offensive firepower and defensive resilience underpins the expectation of a home win.
Lillestrom
Lillestrom have not won any of their last five matches, suffering defeats to Viking (1‑2), Bodo/Glimt (0‑4), Rosenborg (0‑2) and Fredrikstad (1‑4), with only a 1‑1 draw against KFUM Oslo breaking the run. Across those five games they have managed just three goals, highlighting a sputtering attack, while conceding heavily, which aligns with a Brann victory.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Brann have won four, including a 2‑1 win on 9 Nov 2024 and a 2‑0 triumph on 12 May 2024, confirming a clear head‑to‑head advantage for this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2024 | Brann 2-1 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 12 May 2024 | Lillestrom 0-2 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 1 Oct 2023 | Lillestrom 0-2 Brann | Eliteserien |
| 11 Jun 2023 | Brann 2-2 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 20 May 2023 | Brann 2-0 Lillestrom | NM Cupen |
Team News (Pregame)
Brann: N. Boakye (Knee Injury), S. Opsahl (Foot Injury), J. Torsvik (Ankle Injury), N. Wassberg (Injury)
Lillestrom: C. Jebara (Injury), G. Nyheim (Yellow Cards), L. Alperud (Injury), R. Gabrielsen (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Brann vs Lillestrom?
Lillestrom won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Brann to win.
What was the final score of Brann vs Lillestrom?
Brann 1-2 Lillestrom (full time).
When was Brann vs Lillestrom?
Brann played Lillestrom on Sat 5 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Brann Stadion.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →All indicators point to a Brann advantage, making a home win the most logical outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
