Cagliari vs Arezzo: Arezzo to win
Cagliari’s 1.2 xG at home meets Arezzo’s 1.35 xG on the road, but the model rates the visitors slightly higher. The numbers point to an upset in the cup tie.
Both sides arrive from contrasting league runs – Cagliari have been inconsistent, while Arezzo have only one result to show, a 2‑0 home win over Union Brescia. In a one‑off Coppa Italia match, recent form and the underlying scoring rates become decisive.
Robbo's Verdict
The model gives Arezzo a 40.2% chance of winning, the highest single‑outcome probability among the three results.
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With Cagliari averaging 1.2 expected goals and Arezzo averaging 1.35, the model gives a 51.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 48.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Cagliari 1.2 + Arezzo 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 53.1% chance against 46.9% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Cagliari at 33.2%, the draw at 26.6%, and Arezzo at 40.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Cagliari
Cagliari’s last five league games read W‑D‑L‑W‑W, highlighted by a 3‑2 home win over Atalanta and a 2‑1 home victory against Torino. The recent 0‑2 loss to Udinese shows defensive frailty, meaning the team can score but also concedes, supporting a scenario where they may be out‑scored by Arezzo.
Arezzo
Arezzo have only one league result listed – a 2‑0 home win over Union Brescia – showing they can keep a clean sheet and score twice when dominant. That single win underlines a potent, if limited, sample that aligns with their higher xG on the road, bolstering the case for an away win.
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Cagliari vs Arezzo?
Cagliari won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Arezzo to win.
What was the final score of Cagliari vs Arezzo?
Cagliari 1-0 Arezzo (full time).
When was Cagliari vs Arezzo?
Cagliari played Arezzo on Fri 14 Aug · 17:30 BST in the Coppa Italia at Unipol Domus.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →That statistical edge, combined with Cagliari’s recent defensive lapse against Udinese, makes an Arezzo victory the most credible outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
