Fiorentina vs Benevento: Benevento to win
Fiorentina’s 1.1 expected goals sit below Benevento’s 1.35, and the model gives the visitors the highest win probability at 42.5%. The cup tie therefore leans toward an upset.
Both sides come into the fixture carrying contrasting recent form – Fiorentina have drawn two of their last three league games, while Benevento arrive after a high‑scoring win. The disparity in expected goals and the model’s match‑result odds set the stage for a tightly contested cup clash.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates Benevento’s chance of winning at 42.5%, the highest single outcome probability, driven by their superior expected goals.
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With Fiorentina averaging 1.1 expected goals and Benevento averaging 1.35, the model gives a 50.6% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.4% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Fiorentina 1.1 + Benevento 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 55.7% chance against 44.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fiorentina at 30.5%, the draw at 27.1%, and Benevento at 42.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fiorentina
Fiorentina’s recent league form reads D‑W‑D, highlighted by a goalless draw against Genoa at home (0‑0) and a solid 2‑0 away win at Juventus. The draw against Genoa shows defensive resilience, while the win over Juventus proves they can breach quality defences – a mix that suggests a balanced but not dominant performance, reinforcing the modest 30.5% win chance.
Benevento
Benevento’s latest league result is a 5‑3 home triumph over Ravenna, a game that produced nine goals and highlighted their attacking firepower despite a leaky defence. This high‑scoring win aligns with their 1.35 expected goals and bolsters the model’s 42.5% win probability for the visitors.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, Fiorentina have won four (2‑1, 4‑1, 1‑0, 3‑0) and Benevento have secured a single 1‑0 victory in 2020, indicating a historical edge for Fiorentina but not enough to outweigh the current model odds favoring Benevento.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Dec 2021 | Fiorentina 2-1 Benevento | Coppa Italia |
| 13 Mar 2021 | Benevento 1-4 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Fiorentina 0-1 Benevento | Serie A |
| 11 Mar 2018 | Fiorentina 1-0 Benevento | Serie A |
| 22 Oct 2017 | Benevento 0-3 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fiorentina vs Benevento?
Fiorentina won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Benevento to win.
What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Benevento?
Fiorentina 4-1 Benevento (full time).
When was Fiorentina vs Benevento?
Fiorentina played Benevento on Fri 14 Aug · 20:15 BST in the Coppa Italia at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Given the higher expected goals for Benevento and the model’s 42.5% win probability, the visitors are the clear pick for victory in this encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
