Cambuur vs Feyenoord: Cambuur to win
Cambuur's 1.35 expected goals outpace Feyenoord's 1.0, and the model rates a Cambuur win at 44.8% – the highest single‑outcome probability of the match.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form: Cambuur have slipped to two consecutive defeats, while Feyenoord sit unbeaten in their last four league outings. The disparity in defensive records – Cambuur concede four per game at home versus Feyenoord’s zero goals allowed away – sets up a tactical clash of a leaky home side against a rock‑solid road defense.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Cambuur a 44.8% chance to win, the highest probability among all three outcomes, driven by their higher expected goals despite a weak defensive record.
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With Cambuur averaging 1.35 expected goals and Feyenoord averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Cambuur 1.35 + Feyenoord 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Cambuur at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Feyenoord at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Cambuur
Cambuur’s last two league games were heavy defeats: a 0‑4 loss at home to Excelsior and a 1‑3 loss away to Fortuna Sittard. Those results underline a porous defence and limited scoring output, reinforcing the view that any win will likely be low‑scoring and depend on exploiting Feyenoord’s modest away threat.
Feyenoord
Feyenoord have been resilient on the road, winning 2‑1 at Fortuna Sittard, 2‑0 at PEC Zwolle and 1‑0 at Sparta Rotterdam, while also drawing 1‑1 with AZ Alkmaar and 2‑2 with GO Ahead Eagles. This unbeaten run shows they can grind out results without scoring heavily, which aligns with the model’s lower win probability for Feyenoord.
Head-to-Head
Feyenoord have won all five recent meetings, most recently a 4‑1 victory on 5 July 2025, confirming a clear historical dominance that still leaves Cambuur with the higher win probability in the model.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Cambuur 1-4 Feyenoord | Friendlies Clubs |
| 16 Apr 2023 | Cambuur 0-3 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 10 Nov 2022 | Feyenoord 1-0 Cambuur | Eredivisie |
| 20 Feb 2022 | Feyenoord 3-1 Cambuur | Eredivisie |
| 24 Oct 2021 | Cambuur 2-3 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
Cambuur: D. Visser (Knee Injury), W. Kooistra (Injury)
Feyenoord: T. Beelen (Broken Leg), J. Bos (Knee Injury), J. Moder (Knee Injury), B. Nieuwkoop (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Feyenoord won 5-2. Our pre-match pick was Cambuur to win.
What was the final score of Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Cambuur 2-5 Feyenoord (full time).
When was Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Cambuur played Feyenoord on Sun 23 Aug · 15:45 BST in the Eredivisie at Kooi Stadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →The combination of Cambuur’s superior expected goals and the model’s clear probability gap makes a Cambuur victory the most defensible single‑outcome selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
