Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen: NEC Nijmegen to win
Cambuur's modest 1.0 expected goals collide with NEC Nijmegen's prolific 3.5 away expected goals. The model gives NEC an 82.3% chance to win, making the result the clearest edge.
Both clubs entered the fixture on contrasting trajectories: Cambuur have been unable to breach the net consistently, while NEC have rattled off two convincing away wins. The clash pits a goal‑starved home side against an attack that averages three and a half goals per game on the road.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns NEC an 82.3% chance of victory, driven by their superior away expected goals and recent high‑scoring performances.
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With Cambuur averaging 1.0 expected goals and NEC Nijmegen averaging 3.5, the model gives a 60.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.5 (Cambuur 1.0 + NEC Nijmegen 3.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 81.7% chance against 18.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Cambuur at 6.7%, the draw at 10.1%, and NEC Nijmegen at 82.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-3 at 7.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Cambuur
Cambuur’s last five league outings have been dominated by defeats: a 0‑4 loss to Excelsior (H) and a 2‑5 loss to Feyodor (H) illustrate a porous defence that concedes over four goals per game. The solitary draw (2‑2 at Telstar) offers little relief, reinforcing the view that Cambuur lack the firepower to challenge NEC’s attack, which supports a win pick for the visitors.
NEC Nijmegen
NEC’s recent four league results show a sharp contrast: a 4‑1 away win over Willem II (A) and a 3‑1 victory at PEC Zwolle (A) demonstrate a potent attack, while losses to Telstar (1‑2 at home) and Feyenoord (1‑3 at home) reveal occasional defensive lapses but do not diminish their scoring threat. This recent away scoring form feeds directly into the model’s high win probability for NEC.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head‑to‑head meetings, NEC have won four, including a 1‑2 win on 27 Feb 2024, confirming a clear historical edge that aligns with the model’s win forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2024 | Cambuur 1-2 NEC Nijmegen | KNVB Beker |
| 11 Feb 2023 | NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur | Eredivisie |
| 4 Nov 2022 | Cambuur 0-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 3 Apr 2022 | Cambuur 1-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 16 Dec 2021 | Cambuur 1-2 NEC Nijmegen | KNVB Beker |
Team News (Pregame)
Cambuur: W. Asselman (Inactive), D. Visser (Knee Injury), R. van de Pavert (Personal Reasons), W. Kooistra (Injury)
NEC Nijmegen: D. Fonville (Injury), A. Kaplan (Knee Injury), E. Mor (Inactive), P. Sandler (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Cambuur won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was NEC Nijmegen to win.
What was the final score of Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Cambuur 3-0 NEC Nijmegen (full time).
When was Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Cambuur played NEC Nijmegen on Sat 12 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Eredivisie at Kooi Stadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →With a 2.5‑goal expected‑goals differential and NEC’s recent scoring form, the model’s win probability for NEC is decisive.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
