Celtic vs Rangers: Celtic to win
Celtic’s 2.0 expected goals dwarf Rangers’ 1.3, and the model backs a 53.6% chance of a Celtic win. Both sides’ form and the head‑to‑head record underline why the home side should prevail.
The Old Firm clash pits a flawless Celtic side against a Rangers outfit that has bounced back from an early loss. With Celtic unbeaten in their last five and Rangers recovering from a single defeat, the fixture promises a test of firepower and defensive resilience.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns Celtic a 53.6% chance of victory versus a 24.7% chance for Rangers, reflecting the superior expected goals and defensive record.
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With Celtic averaging 2.0 expected goals and Rangers averaging 1.3, the model gives a 62.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 37.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (Celtic 2.0 + Rangers 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Celtic at 53.6%, the draw at 21.6%, and Rangers at 24.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Celtic
Celtic have won each of their last five league games, including a 5‑1 away demolition of Kilmarnock and a 2‑1 home win over Falkirk. Those emphatic victories, especially the five‑goal haul, illustrate a potent attack that directly supports a Celtic win in this fixture.
Rangers
Rangers have rebounded from a 1‑2 home loss to Hibernian with four straight wins, highlighted by a 1‑0 away victory at Aberdeen and a 2‑1 away success over Falkirk. While the run shows resilience, the narrow margins suggest they lack the firepower to overturn Celtic’s superior xG, limiting their win chances.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent derbies, Rangers have won two (3‑0 and 1‑3), Celtic have won one (3‑1), and there have been two draws (0‑0 and 2‑2), indicating no clear dominance but a slight historic edge for Rangers, which the model still rates lower than Celtic’s current form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | Rangers 3-0 Celtic | League Cup |
| 10 May 2026 | Celtic 3-1 Rangers | Premiership |
| 8 Mar 2026 | Rangers 0-0 Celtic | FA Cup |
| 1 Mar 2026 | Rangers 2-2 Celtic | Premiership |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Celtic 1-3 Rangers | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Celtic: A. Johnston (Inactive), Jota (Knee Injury), A. Oxlade-Chamberlain (Red Card)
Rangers: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Celtic vs Rangers?
Rangers won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Celtic to win.
What was the final score of Celtic vs Rangers?
Celtic 0-1 Rangers (full time).
When was Celtic vs Rangers?
Celtic played Rangers on Sun 20 Sep · 12:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Celtic Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Those numbers, combined with a model win probability of 53.6% for Celtic, point to a straightforward result in Glasgow’s favor.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
