CF Montreal vs New England Revolution: Draw
CF Montreal sit at 1.3 xG at home while New England manage only 0.8 xG on the road, suggesting a low‑scoring encounter. Our model assigns a 28.7 % chance of a draw versus the market’s 25.3 % implied probability, exposing clear value.
Both clubs are coming into this MLS clash with inconsistent form but a shared propensity for tight games. Montreal have struggled to convert chances at home, and the Revolution have been shaky away, making the result a pivotal point for each side’s season objectives.
Jonesy's Verdict
The draw sits at 28.7 % in the model versus a market‑implied 25.3 %, offering a clear value edge for bettors.
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With CF Montreal averaging 1.3 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 0.8, the model gives a 59.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.1 (CF Montreal 1.3 + New England Revolution 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Montreal at 48.3%, the draw at 28.7%, and New England Revolution at 23.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 15.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Montreal
Montreal’s last five league games read L‑D‑D‑L‑L, highlighted by a 4‑4 draw at DC United and a 0‑0 stalemate versus Toronto FC. Those two results show they can hold opponents scoreless, which feeds directly into a higher chance of a draw in this fixture.
New England Revolution
The Revolution’s away form is L‑W‑L‑D‑W, with a 2‑1 win over Minnesota United and a 0‑0 draw at Toronto FC. The ability to grind out a draw on the road, alongside a win, points to a realistic probability of sharing points in Montreal.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, New England have won three, Montreal one, and there’s one 2‑2 draw – the most recent 3‑0 Rev win in April 2026 underlines their recent dominance but also shows both sides can be shut out, supporting a draw outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | New England Revolution 3-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Feb 2026 | New England Revolution 1-2 CF Montreal | Friendlies Clubs |
| 25 Jul 2025 | New England Revolution 1-3 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 31 May 2025 | CF Montreal 0-3 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 18 Sep 2024 | New England Revolution 2-2 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), W. Carmona (Knee Injury), T. Gillier (Concussion), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), A. Farrell (Lower-Body Injury), I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury), J. Harrison (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CF Montreal vs New England Revolution?
CF Montreal and New England Revolution drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Draw.
What was the final score of CF Montreal vs New England Revolution?
CF Montreal 2-2 New England Revolution (full time).
When was CF Montreal vs New England Revolution?
CF Montreal played New England Revolution on Sun 2 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Saputo Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →Given the low xG totals, the recent draw‑heavy form of both sides, and the model’s higher draw probability, the safest read is that the match will finish level.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
