New York City FC vs Toronto FC: BTTS - Yes
New York City FC sit on a 2.4 expected‑goals per game rate while Toronto FC limp along at 0.8. Our model splits the BTTS line right down the middle at 50‑50, suggesting a coin‑flip proposition.
Both sides arrive in the MLS with starkly different attacking pedigrees, and the clash in New York could decide which club keeps momentum heading into the final weeks of the season.
Jonesy's Verdict
Both teams have shown the capacity to both score and be kept out in recent matches, aligning with the model’s 50 % BTTS probability.
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With New York City FC averaging 2.4 expected goals and Toronto FC averaging 0.8, the model gives a 50.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 50.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.2 (New York City FC 2.4 + Toronto FC 0.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 61.9% chance against 38.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York City FC at 72.7%, the draw at 16.6%, and Toronto FC at 10.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 11.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York City FC
NYCFC beat Chicago Fire 3‑1 at home and then edged Columbus Crew 2‑1 away, demonstrating they can score three goals yet also keep a clean sheet. Those two wins, each with both sides finding the net, reinforce the notion that a BTTS outcome is plausible for NYCFC.
Toronto FC
Toronto FC suffered a 1‑3 loss at Charlotte and then secured a 0‑0 draw against CF Montreal, showing they can be held scoreless while also conceding multiple goals. The mix of a heavy defeat and a goalless draw illustrates Toronto’s volatile defensive record, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings NYCFC have won each time, with scorelines like 3‑1 (2025) and 2‑1 (2024), yet both sides have scored in three of those matches, underscoring the BTTS trend.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | New York City FC 3-1 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Toronto FC 0-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 11 May 2024 | Toronto FC 2-3 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Mar 2024 | New York City FC 2-1 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Sep 2023 | New York City FC 3-0 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
Team News (Pregame)
New York City FC: D. Baiera (Knee Injury), A. Farnos (Injury), A. Martinez (Knee Injury), M. Moralez (Knee Injury)
Toronto FC: M. Cimermancic (Thigh Injury), N. Gomis (Thigh Injury), Matheus Pereira (Groin Injury), N. Palacio (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
New York City FC and Toronto FC drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was BTTS - Yes.
What was the final score of New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC (full time).
When was New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
New York City FC played Toronto FC on Sat 1 Aug · 00:30 BST in the MLS at Yankee Stadium.
More MLS This Week
See all MLS fixtures →With one side firing and the other often going without, the BTTS market sits at a perfect 50 % split, making it the cleanest read in a game that lacks a clear edge elsewhere.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
