Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor: Çorum FK to win
Çorum FK sit on a 1.5 expected‑goals edge over Alanyaspor's 1.0, and the model gives them a 48.8% chance to win versus 25.2% for the visitors. The statistical gap makes the home side the clear favorite for a result.
Both clubs come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Çorum have rallied with back‑to‑back wins, while Alanyaspor have been inconsistent, swapping victories and defeats. Injuries to Çorum’s Kyziridis and Osmanoglu add a minor doubt, but the core of both sides remains available.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Çorum’s win probability at 48.8% versus Alanyaspor’s 25.2%, making the home side the clear favorite.
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With Çorum FK averaging 1.5 expected goals and Alanyaspor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Çorum FK 1.5 + Alanyaspor 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Çorum FK at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Alanyaspor at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Çorum FK
Çorum’s recent five‑match run includes a 3‑0 home win over Eyüpspor and a dominant 5‑1 away victory against Samsunspor, both showing their ability to find the net. Earlier they suffered a 0‑1 home loss to Kasımpaşa and a 2‑6 defeat at Beşiktaş, but the two wins swing momentum in their favour, supporting a home win pick.
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor have mixed results: a 1‑0 home win over Beşiktaş and a 1‑0 away win at Rizespor demonstrate they can secure narrow victories, yet a 1‑2 away loss to Eyüpspor and two draws (1‑1 vs Gaziantep FK, 2‑2 vs Göztepe) highlight inconsistency. Their limited scoring record underlines the difficulty of overturning Çorum’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
The only recent head‑to‑head meeting ended 0‑5 in Alanyaspor’s favour, a result that contradicts the current pick but is an outlier given Çorum’s improved form and higher expected goals this season.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2025 | Çorum FK 0-5 Alanyaspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Team News (Pregame)
Çorum FK: A. Kyziridis (Red Card), S. Osmanoglu (Injury)
Alanyaspor: Maestro (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Çorum FK to win.
What was the final score of Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Çorum FK 1-2 Alanyaspor (full time).
When was Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Çorum FK played Alanyaspor on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Süper Lig at Corum Stadyumu.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the clear statistical advantage and Çorum’s upward trajectory, the model’s strongest signal points to a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
