Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor: Çorum FK to win
Çorum FK sit on a 1.5 expected‑goals edge over Alanyaspor's 1.0, and the model gives them a 48.8% chance to win versus 25.2% for the visitors. The statistical gap makes the home side the clear favorite for a result.
Both clubs come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Çorum have rallied with back‑to‑back wins, while Alanyaspor have been inconsistent, swapping victories and defeats. Injuries to Çorum’s Kyziridis and Osmanoglu add a minor doubt, but the core of both sides remains available.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Çorum’s win probability at 48.8% versus Alanyaspor’s 25.2%, making the home side the clear favorite.
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With Çorum FK averaging 1.5 expected goals and Alanyaspor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Çorum FK 1.5 + Alanyaspor 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Çorum FK at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Alanyaspor at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Çorum FK
Çorum’s recent five‑match run includes a 3‑0 home win over Eyüpspor and a dominant 5‑1 away victory against Samsunspor, both showing their ability to find the net. Earlier they suffered a 0‑1 home loss to Kasımpaşa and a 2‑6 defeat at Beşiktaş, but the two wins swing momentum in their favour, supporting a home win pick.
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor have mixed results: a 1‑0 home win over Beşiktaş and a 1‑0 away win at Rizespor demonstrate they can secure narrow victories, yet a 1‑2 away loss to Eyüpspor and two draws (1‑1 vs Gaziantep FK, 2‑2 vs Göztepe) highlight inconsistency. Their limited scoring record underlines the difficulty of overturning Çorum’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
The only recent head‑to‑head meeting ended 0‑5 in Alanyaspor’s favour, a result that contradicts the current pick but is an outlier given Çorum’s improved form and higher expected goals this season.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2025 | Çorum FK 0-5 Alanyaspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Team News
Çorum FK: A. Kyziridis (Red Card), S. Osmanoglu (Injury)
Alanyaspor: Maestro (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Çorum FK to win. The model rates Çorum’s win probability at 48.8% versus Alanyaspor’s 25.2%, making the home side the clear favorite.
What does the model give Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Çorum FK a 48.8% chance, the draw 26.0%, and Alanyaspor 25.2% to win.
When is Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Çorum FK play Alanyaspor on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Süper Lig at Corum Stadyumu.
Are there any injury concerns for Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor?
Çorum FK: A. Kyziridis (Red Card), S. Osmanoglu (Injury). Alanyaspor: Maestro (Inactive). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the clear statistical advantage and Çorum’s upward trajectory, the model’s strongest signal points to a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
