Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor: Under 2.5 goals
Çorum FK and Eyüpspor head into a tightly balanced Süper Lig clash, with both sides posting identical expected goals of 1.35 and a model‑derived win chance of 37.1% each.
Both clubs have struggled to find the net lately – Çorum FK have failed to score in their last two league outings, while Eyüpspor have gone three games without a goal. The lack of recent firepower makes this encounter a test of defensive resilience as much as attacking intent.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 49.4% probability to under 2.5 goals, reflecting the teams' zero‑goal averages and tight defensive records.
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With Çorum FK averaging 1.35 expected goals and Eyüpspor averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Çorum FK 1.35 + Eyüpspor 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Çorum FK at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Eyüpspor at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Çorum FK
Çorum FK's recent form reads D‑L in their last two league games, highlighted by a 2‑2 draw away at Galatasaray and a 0‑1 home loss to Kasımpaşa. The draw against Galatasaray showed they can still find the net, but the home defeat without scoring underscores a drying goal threat, reinforcing the under‑2.5 outlook.
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor have posted a W‑D‑L‑L‑W sequence, including a 4‑0 home win over Rizespor and a 0‑1 away loss to Beşiktaş. The emphatic win was followed by two consecutive shut‑outs, indicating inconsistency in attack and a tendency toward low‑scoring games, which supports the under‑2.5 pick.
Head-to-Head
In their three recent meetings, Çorum FK won 1‑0 in March 2024, lost 2‑3 in October 2023, and triumphed 3‑0 in November 2020, showing no clear dominance but a pattern of low‑scoring games that backs the under‑2.5 forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2024 | Eyüpspor 0-1 Çorum FK | 1. Lig |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Çorum FK 2-3 Eyüpspor | 1. Lig |
| 5 Nov 2020 | Çorum FK 3-0 Eyüpspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Team News (Pregame)
Çorum FK: A. Kyziridis (Red Card), S. Osmanoglu (Injury)
Eyüpspor: D. Costa (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Çorum FK won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Çorum FK 3-0 Eyüpspor (full time).
When was Çorum FK vs Eyüpspor?
Çorum FK played Eyüpspor on Sun 6 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Süper Lig at Corum Stadyumu.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the twin 1.35 xG values, identical win odds, and a sub‑50% chance of the game exceeding 2.5 goals, the safest read is that the match will stay under the goal threshold.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
