Cremonese vs Sampdoria: Under 2.5 goals
Cremonese head into the Coppa Italia tie with an xG of 0.9 against Sampdoria's 1.35, giving the encounter a combined 2.25 expected goals. The model rates the chance of more than two goals at just 39.1%, favouring a low‑scoring affair.
Both clubs are meeting in the early stages of the Italian cup, where a single‑match knockout decides who progresses. With Cremonese defending at home and Sampdoria travelling, the fixture offers a classic underdog versus a side with a stronger attacking record.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 60.9% chance the match stays under 2.5 goals, driven by a combined expected‑goals tally of just 2.25.
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With Cremonese averaging 0.9 expected goals and Sampdoria averaging 1.35, the model gives a 56.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 44.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Cremonese 0.9 + Sampdoria 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 60.9% chance against 39.1% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Cremonese at 25.0%, the draw at 27.8%, and Sampdoria at 47.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 14.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Cremonese
Cremonese’s recent five‑match run includes a 3‑0 win over Pisa and a 1‑0 victory at Udinese, both clean‑sheet performances that highlight their defensive solidity. Those two wins sit among a mixed bag of results (L 0‑4 Napoli, L 1‑2 Lazio, L 1‑4 Como), indicating that when they do score, they tend to keep the total low, reinforcing the under‑2.5 goals outlook.
Sampdoria
Sampdoria’s away form lacks specific goal data, with both their away goals‑for and against averages recorded as 0.0, suggesting they have struggled to find the net on the road. This dry away record aligns with a low‑scoring profile, supporting the under‑2.5 goals pick.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have produced low scores: 0‑0, 1‑1, 1‑2, 1‑1 and 2‑3, with three of those matches ending with two goals or fewer, reinforcing the expectation of a modest goal tally.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Sampdoria 0-0 Cremonese | Serie B |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Cremonese 1-1 Sampdoria | Serie B |
| 27 Feb 2024 | Sampdoria 1-2 Cremonese | Serie B |
| 3 Sep 2023 | Cremonese 1-1 Sampdoria | Serie B |
| 8 Apr 2023 | Sampdoria 2-3 Cremonese | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Cremonese won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Cremonese 2-0 Sampdoria (full time).
When was Cremonese vs Sampdoria?
Cremonese played Sampdoria on Mon 17 Aug · 19:45 BST in the Coppa Italia at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Given the modest combined xG and the defensive lean of both sides, the model’s under‑2.5 goals probability is the clearest edge in this match.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
