Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF preview by Lars for TerraceBet

Allsvenskan · Regular Season - 22 FT · Degerfors IF 0-1 Hammarby FF Stora Valla

Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF: Hammarby draw no bet

Degerfors host Hammarby in a clash where the visitors possess a higher expected‑goals rating (1.4 vs 1.1). Our model backs Hammarby with a 43.8% win chance and a 50.3% chance of both sides scoring.

Lars — European Football Writer, Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Lars's Take

Headline Pick

Hammarby draw no bet Void

Solid · Higher win odds

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

50.3% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Won

54.4% model probability

Both teams come in with recent wins on their record, but Degerfors have been more volatile at home, while Hammarby have shown the ability to score on the road. The fixture tests whether Degerfors can leverage their solid home average against a side that has already beaten them 4‑0 this season.

Lars's Verdict

Solid

Hammarby draw no bet Void Solid · Higher win odds

The model rates Hammarby as the clear favorite (43.8% win probability) and the BTTS outlook is even, meaning a draw is the main risk. Removing the draw option protects the pick while retaining the upside of a Hammarby win.

Show the maths

Degerfors’ expected goals of 1.1 versus Hammarby’s 1.4 gives the visitors a 0.3 xG advantage. The model translates that into a 43.8% win probability for Hammarby, compared with 29.6% for Degerfors and 26.6% for a draw. Because the draw accounts for over a quarter of the probability mass, the draw‑no‑bet market trims that risk, leaving a net win chance of roughly 61% (43.8 / (43.8+26.6)). This odds edge justifies the pick.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 50.3% model probability

With Degerfors IF averaging 1.1 expected goals and Hammarby FF averaging 1.4, the model gives a 50.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Degerfors IF 1.1, Hammarby FF 1.4) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 50.3% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 49.7% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Won 54.4% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Degerfors IF 1.1 + Hammarby FF 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Degerfors IF 1.1 + Hammarby FF 1.4 = 2.5 combined): 45.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 54.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Degerfors IF at 29.6%, the draw at 26.6%, and Hammarby FF at 43.8% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Degerfors IF expected goals

1.1

Hammarby FF expected goals

1.4

Model BTTS probability

50.3%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.6%

20-1

11.5%

31-0

9.0%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Degerfors IF

WWLLW

Degerfors’ recent five results (WWLLW) include a 2‑1 away win at Malmö FF and a 3‑0 home victory over IFK Göteborg, showing they can produce goals but also leak two‑nil defeats to IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg. Those mixed outcomes indicate a side capable of scoring but vulnerable at the back, which supports a scenario where Hammarby can still find the net even if Degerfors scores.

Hammarby FF

WWLDW

Hammarby’s form (WWLDW) features a 4‑0 away win at Kalmar FF and a 2‑0 home win over Gais, proving they can dominate opponents when in rhythm. Their recent 2‑3 loss at AIK and 1‑1 draw at Örgryte show they also concede, reinforcing the likelihood of both teams scoring in this match.

Head-to-Head

The latest head‑to‑head meeting saw Hammarby thrash Degerfors 4‑0 in July, while earlier encounters produced a 1‑1 draw and a narrow 1‑0 win for the visitors, underscoring Hammarby’s recent superiority but also a history of close scorelines.

Date	Result	Competition
19 Jul 2026	Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF	Allsvenskan
3 Nov 2025	Degerfors IF 1-1 Hammarby FF	Allsvenskan
26 May 2025	Hammarby FF 1-0 Degerfors IF	Allsvenskan
25 May 2023	Degerfors IF 2-2 Hammarby FF	Allsvenskan
2 Apr 2023	Hammarby FF 3-1 Degerfors IF	Allsvenskan

Team News (Pregame)

Degerfors IF: S. Diatara (Yellow Cards), J. Pikkarainen (Knee Injury), R. Dzabic (Yellow Cards), K. Karlsson (Yellow Cards)

Hammarby FF: S. Kone (Knee Injury), F. Adjei (Yellow Cards), V. Eriksson (Yellow Cards), H. Skoglund (Red Card)

Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?

Hammarby FF won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Hammarby draw no bet.

What was the final score of Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?

Degerfors IF 0-1 Hammarby FF (full time).

When was Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?

Degerfors IF played Hammarby FF on Sun 20 Sep · 15:30 BST in the Allsvenskan at Stora Valla.

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Given the comparable scoring rates and the 50.3% BTTS probability, the safest edge lies in backing Hammarby’s result while insulating against a draw.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Lars

European Football Writer, TerraceBet — Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga