Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg: IFK Göteborg to win
Degerfors sit on a 0.8 expected‑goals baseline while Göteborg average 1.4 xG away. The model rates Göteborg’s win chance at 51.1 % against Degerfors’ 21.4 %.
Both sides come into the clash on contrasting recent runs – Degerfors have clawed a solitary win from five, whereas Göteborg have collected three wins from their last five league outings. The form differential suggests Göteborg hold the momentum heading into the Allsvenskan showdown.
Lars's Verdict
Göteborg’s 1.4 expected goals and 51.1 % win probability outweigh Degerfors’ 0.8 expected goals and 21.4 % chance, making a Göteborg win the most supported outcome.
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With Degerfors IF averaging 0.8 expected goals and IFK Goteborg averaging 1.4, the model gives a 58.5% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 41.5% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Degerfors IF 0.8 + IFK Goteborg 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 62.3% chance against 37.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Degerfors IF at 21.4%, the draw at 27.4%, and IFK Goteborg at 51.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 15.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Degerfors IF
Degerfors have endured four straight defeats before snapping a 2‑1 win at Malmö (A). Their recent loss 0‑2 at IFK Göteborg (A) and earlier 0‑1 defeat to Djurgårdens IF (H) underline a defensive frailty that limits scoring opportunities, reinforcing the low 21.4 % win chance for this fixture.
IFK Goteborg
Göteborg have rebounded from a 0‑4 loss at Malmö (A) with a 2‑1 home win over IF Brommapojkarna (H) and a 2‑0 home victory over Degerfors (H). Their latest 3‑2 win at home against Kalmar FF (H) demonstrates an attacking potency that aligns with the 1.4 expected‑goals metric and supports the 51.1 % win probability.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have all ended in Göteborg wins, most recently a 2‑0 result on 2 August 2026, confirming the head‑to‑head trend that backs a Göteborg victory.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2026 | IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan |
| 8 Mar 2026 | IFK Goteborg 3-1 Degerfors IF | Svenska Cupen |
| 4 Aug 2025 | IFK Goteborg 3-0 Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan |
| 19 May 2025 | Degerfors IF 1-3 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Degerfors IF 1-2 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
Degerfors IF: A. Berisson (Inactive), E. Lindell (Injury), J. Pikkarainen (Knee Injury), Z. Salifu (Inactive)
IFK Goteborg: G. Ersoy (Muscle Injury), M. Fenger (Inactive), A. Mucolli (Knee Injury), T. Heintz (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Degerfors IF won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was IFK Göteborg to win.
What was the final score of Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Degerfors IF 3-0 IFK Goteborg (full time).
When was Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Degerfors IF played IFK Goteborg on Sun 16 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Stora Valla.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →Given the statistical edge and recent form, the model’s strongest signal points to a Göteborg victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
