Dundee Utd vs Dundee: Dundee to win
Dundee's 1.35 xG edge and a 44.8% win probability set them as clear favourites, while Dundee Utd's 1.0 xG and low scoring record cap the match at under 2.5 goals.
The Dundee derby pits two city rivals with contrasting recent form. Dundee have slipped to a single loss and a win in their last two games, while Dundee Utd have endured three draws and a defeat in five, suggesting a gap in momentum heading into the fixture.
Hamish's Verdict
The model gives Dundee a 44.8% chance to win versus 27.7% for Dundee Utd, reflecting their superior expected goals and recent form.
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With Dundee Utd averaging 1.0 expected goals and Dundee averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Dundee Utd 1.0 + Dundee 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dundee Utd at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Dundee at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd's last five league results read D‑D‑D‑L, highlighted by a 0‑0 draw at Livingston and a 1‑1 draw with St Mirren. The 0‑4 loss at Hearts shows they can be breached heavily, which underlines their limited offensive threat and supports a Dundee win.
Dundee
Dundee's recent form is L‑W, with a 0‑1 defeat at Celtic and a 2‑0 home win over Aberdeen. The win demonstrates their ability to score, while the narrow loss to Celtic shows resilience, reinforcing their edge in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Dundee Utd have won 3‑0 and lost 0‑1, while Dundee secured a 2‑4 away win, indicating both sides can score but Dundee's recent 2‑0 win at home highlights their current advantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Dundee Utd 3-0 Dundee | Premiership |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Dundee 2-2 Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Dundee Utd 0-1 Dundee | Premiership |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Dundee 0-2 Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Dundee Utd 2-4 Dundee | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Dundee Utd vs Dundee?
Dundee won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Dundee to win.
What was the final score of Dundee Utd vs Dundee?
Dundee Utd 0-2 Dundee (full time).
When was Dundee Utd vs Dundee?
Dundee Utd played Dundee on Sat 22 Aug · 17:45 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Tannadice Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →With Dundee's higher xG and the model's clear win edge, the sensible read is a Dundee victory, likely in a low‑scoring encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
