Dundee vs Motherwell: Over 2.5 goals
Dundee's 1.3 xG at home meets Motherwell's 1.7 away threat, while the model puts the over‑2.5 goals market at 57.7% probability.
Both teams come into this fixture with mixed recent form – Dundee have slipped to a loss in their last five, while Motherwell sit on a solitary defeat after a string of draws and wins. The clash pits Dundee's solid home defence (1.0 GA) against Motherwell's more porous away backline (1.7 GA).
Hamish's Verdict
Back the over‑2.5 goals line, as the combined expected goals of 3.0 and a 57.7% model probability point to a high‑scoring encounter.
Show the maths
With Dundee averaging 1.3 expected goals and Motherwell averaging 1.7, the model gives a 59.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Dundee 1.3 + Motherwell 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dundee at 29.4%, the draw at 23.8%, and Motherwell at 46.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dundee
Dundee’s recent five results read WWLDL, highlighted by a 2‑0 win over Aberdeen at home and a 2‑0 away win at Dundee United, showing they can find the net in bursts. However, a 1‑2 home loss to Hibernian and a 1‑2 away defeat at Hearts illustrate defensive lapses, suggesting the match could produce several goals.
Motherwell
Motherwell’s form of WDDWL includes a 2‑1 away win at Hibernian and a 3‑3 away draw with St Mirren, both games featuring multiple goals. The 0‑1 loss at Rangers shows they can be shut out, but the preceding high‑scoring fixtures indicate an overall propensity for goal‑filled matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Dundee have scored five goals while Motherwell have netted seven, with recent results ranging from 2‑1 to 1‑2, confirming a history of both sides finding the net – a trend that supports the over‑2.5 forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | Dundee 2-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Motherwell 1-0 Dundee | Premiership |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Dundee 1-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| 3 May 2025 | Dundee 1-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Motherwell 2-1 Dundee | Premiership |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Dundee vs Motherwell?
Over 2.5 goals. Back the over‑2.5 goals line, as the combined expected goals of 3.0 and a 57.7% model probability point to a high‑scoring encounter.
What does the model give Dundee vs Motherwell?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Dundee a 29.4% chance, the draw 23.8%, and Motherwell 46.8% to win.
When is Dundee vs Motherwell?
Dundee play Motherwell on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Dens Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →With both sides averaging more than a goal each and a clear statistical edge for a goal‑rich game, the over‑2.5 goals market looks the most compelling.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
