Dundee vs ST Johnstone: Dundee to win
Dundee's 2.0 expected goals against Johnstone's 1.35 set the stage for a high‑scoring encounter, with the model rating a 52.5% chance Dundee win. Recent form and head‑to‑head results reinforce that Dundee have the edge.
Both clubs have been inconsistent in their opening matches, but Dundee have shown a sharper attack when it matters, while Johnstone have been fragile on the road. This clash pits Dundee's potent home numbers against a Johnstone side that concedes at away venues.
Hamish's Verdict
The model gives Dundee a 52.5% win probability, driven by a superior xG edge and a home record that has yet to concede.
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With Dundee averaging 2.0 expected goals and ST Johnstone averaging 1.35, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Dundee 2.0 + ST Johnstone 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dundee at 52.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and ST Johnstone at 25.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dundee
Dundee's recent run of L‑W‑W includes a 2‑0 victory over Aberdeen at home and a 2‑0 win away at Dundee United, showing they can score twice without reply. The earlier 0‑1 loss at Celtic underlines that when they are shut out they struggle, reinforcing the importance of their current scoring form for a win today.
ST Johnstone
Johnstone have a win‑loss pattern of W‑L, with a high‑scoring 4‑3 home win over Kilmarnock and a 0‑1 away defeat to St Mirren. The 0‑1 loss away highlights their inability to find the net on the road, suggesting they will find it hard to threaten Dundee's solid defence.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Dundee have won three, including a 2‑0 win on 18 May 2025, while Johnstone have taken only one point from a 1‑1 draw earlier this year – the head‑to‑head trend favours Dundee.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 May 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-2 Dundee | Premiership |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Dundee 1-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 5 Jan 2025 | ST Johnstone 1-3 Dundee | Premiership |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Dundee 1-2 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 30 Mar 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-2 Dundee | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
Dundee and ST Johnstone drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Dundee to win.
What was the final score of Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
Dundee 1-1 ST Johnstone (full time).
When was Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
Dundee played ST Johnstone on Wed 2 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Dens Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →All the numbers point to Dundee dictating the tempo and finding the net, making a Dundee victory the most likely outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
