Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor: Over 2.5 goals
Erzurumspor FK host Konyaspor in a Süper Lig clash where the model predicts 65% chance of more than two goals. Both sides' scoring averages and recent form point to an open game.
Erzurumspor have struggled at home, averaging zero goals while conceding four per match, whereas Konyaspor have found the net on the road with a two‑goal average but also leak four. The contrast in defensive records sets the stage for a high‑scoring encounter.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 65% probability to more than 2.5 goals, reflecting the combined xG of 3.35 and recent high‑scoring fixtures.
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With Erzurumspor FK averaging 1.35 expected goals and Konyaspor averaging 2.0, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Erzurumspor FK 1.35 + Konyaspor 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Erzurumspor FK at 25.8%, the draw at 21.7%, and Konyaspor at 52.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor’s recent league results read L‑L‑D, with a 0‑3 loss to Amed (away) and a 0‑4 defeat to Galatasaray (home). The draw against Gençlerbirliği (1‑1 away) was their only point in the last three games, indicating they struggle to score but can keep games open, supporting a goal‑rich match.
Konyaspor
Konyaspor have lost four straight, including a 1‑2 loss at Kayserispor, a 0‑1 defeat at home to Rizespor, a 2‑4 loss away to Fenerbahçe, and a 1‑2 loss at home to Kocaelispor. Despite the defeats, each game featured at least two goals, underscoring an ability to find the net even when conceding heavily.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Konyaspor have won each encounter, with scorelines of 0‑4, 1‑2, 1‑2, 2‑0, and 1‑2, showing a consistent pattern of multiple goals, which aligns with the over‑2.5 pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2022 | Erzurumspor FK 0-4 Konyaspor | Friendlies Clubs |
| 25 Jul 2021 | Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Konyaspor | Friendlies Clubs |
| 4 Apr 2021 | Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 5 Dec 2020 | Konyaspor 2-0 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| 19 Jan 2019 | Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Erzurumspor FK: E. Yigit (Suspended)
Konyaspor: B. Gungordu (Injury), A. Ndao (Suspended)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor?
Erzurumspor FK won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor?
Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Konyaspor (full time).
When was Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor?
Erzurumspor FK played Konyaspor on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →With both teams regularly involved in matches that exceed two goals, the statistical edge lies with the over‑2.5 market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
