Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor: Under 2.5 goals
Erzurumspor's xG sits at 0.5 while Samsunspor's is 1.0, giving a combined expected tally of 1.5 goals. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at just 19.1%, signalling a clear under‑2.5 outlook.
Both sides arrive on a rough patch – Erzurumspor have lost four of their last five league games and Samsunspor have slipped to three defeats in the same span. Their recent results suggest neither side is firing in attack.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s under‑2.5 probability of 80.9% and the teams’ low combined expected goals make a goal‑scarce match the most likely outcome.
Show the maths
With Erzurumspor FK averaging 0.5 expected goals and Samsunspor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 75.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 24.9% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.5 (Erzurumspor FK 0.5 + Samsunspor 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 80.9% chance against 19.1% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Erzurumspor FK at 18.1%, the draw at 34.9%, and Samsunspor at 47.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 22.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor’s recent run includes a 0‑3 loss to Amed and a 0‑4 defeat by Galatasaray, followed by a 1‑0 win at home over Konyaspor. Conceding heavily in three of five games and scoring just two goals overall underlines their limited firepower, reinforcing the under‑2.5 outlook.
Samsunspor
Samsunspor opened with a 3‑3 draw at home to Göztepe but have since lost 0‑2 to Fenerbahçe, 0‑1 to Kocaelispor and 1‑5 to Çorum FK, despite scoring six goals across the five matches. Their defensive record away (0.5 GA) juxtaposed with a high‑scoring loss suggests they can keep games tight, supporting the under.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent head‑to‑head, Samsunspor won 2‑1 on 30 Jan 2023, while the 2022‑08 draw ended 2‑2. The low‑scoring 2‑1 result aligns with the model’s under‑2.5 expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2023 | Samsunspor 2-1 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 27 Aug 2022 | Erzurumspor FK 2-2 Samsunspor | 1. Lig |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Samsunspor | 1. Lig |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Samsunspor 0-0 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 11 Feb 2018 | Samsunspor 1-0 Erzurumspor FK | 1. Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Erzurumspor FK: E. Yigit (Suspended)
Samsunspor: J. Assoumou (Inactive), T. Coulibaly (Inactive), F. Kaya (Injury), A. Sousa (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Erzurumspor FK won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Samsunspor (full time).
When was Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Erzurumspor FK played Samsunspor on Sun 20 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →With the combined expected goal output well below the 2.5 threshold and the model assigning an 80.9% probability to the under, the safest bet is on a modest scoreline.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
