Everton vs Ipswich: Ipswich to win
Everton's 2.0 xG at home meets Ipswich's 2.5 away xG, but the model backs the visitors with a 49.5% win probability versus 31.4% for the hosts. The numbers point to a high‑scoring encounter where the away side holds the edge.
Everton host Ipswich in a Premier League clash where both sides have been prolific in front of goal this season. Everton's home record of 2.0 goals for and 1.0 conceded per game contrasts with Ipswich's away averages of 2.5 scored but 3.5 let in, setting up a classic attack‑vs‑defence duel.
Robbo's Verdict
The model gives Ipswich a 49.5% win chance versus Everton's 31.4%, driven by a higher expected goal tally and a history of scoring in away games.
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With Everton averaging 2.0 expected goals and Ipswich averaging 2.5, the model gives a 79.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 20.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.5 (Everton 2.0 + Ipswich 2.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 82.5% chance against 17.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Everton at 31.4%, the draw at 18.9%, and Ipswich at 49.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 6.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Everton
Everton have drawn three of their last four league games, including a 2‑2 home draw with Manchester United and a 0‑0 away stalemate at Tottenham. Those results illustrate their ability to find the net but also a tendency to settle for draws, which undercuts their chances of securing a win here.
Ipswich
Ipswich's recent away form features a 3‑2 victory at Crystal Palace and a 2‑5 defeat at Manchester United. The win shows they can score heavily on the road, while the heavy loss highlights defensive frailties that Everton may exploit, but the scoring potential backs the pick of an Ipswich win.
Head-to-Head
In the last two meetings, Everton drew 2‑2 at home in 2025 and won 2‑0 away in 2024, giving the visitors a mixed head‑to‑head record, but the recent 2‑2 draw supports the model's view of a high‑scoring game rather than a defensive stalemate.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | Everton 2-2 Ipswich | Premier League |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Ipswich 0-2 Everton | Premier League |
Team News
Everton: C. Norgaard (Injury), T. Iroegbunam (Muscle Injury)
Ipswich: J. Taylor (Knee Injury), A. Matusiwa (Muscle Injury), J. Philogene (Ankle Injury), Florentino (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Everton vs Ipswich?
Ipswich to win. The model gives Ipswich a 49.5% win chance versus Everton's 31.4%, driven by a higher expected goal tally and a history of scoring in away games.
What does the model give Everton vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Everton a 31.4% chance, the draw 18.9%, and Ipswich 49.5% to win.
When is Everton vs Ipswich?
Everton play Ipswich on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Premier League at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Are there any injury concerns for Everton vs Ipswich?
Everton: C. Norgaard (Injury), T. Iroegbunam (Muscle Injury). Ipswich: J. Taylor (Knee Injury), A. Matusiwa (Muscle Injury), J. Philogene (Ankle Injury), Florentino (Inactive). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →With the visitors' xG edge and a record of scoring on the road, the model leans heavily toward an Ipswich victory despite Everton's solid home defensive numbers.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
