Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor: Eyüpspor to win
Eyüpspor's 1.35 expected goals edge over Alanyaspor's 1.0 gives them the statistical edge, and the model rates a home win at 44.8 %.
Both sides have been inconsistent in their last five league outings, but Eyüpspor's recent 4‑0 thrashing of Rizespor at home shows they can produce firepower when the venue favors them.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Eyüpspor a 44.8 % chance of victory, driven by a higher expected‑goals metric and a recent 4‑0 home win that signals potent attack potential.
Show the maths
With Eyüpspor averaging 1.35 expected goals and Alanyaspor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Eyüpspor 1.35 + Alanyaspor 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Eyüpspor at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Alanyaspor at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor’s five‑match run reads D‑W‑D‑L‑L, highlighted by a 4‑0 home victory over Rizespor and a 1‑1 draw away at Kayserispor. The dominant win shows they can breach defenses emphatically, supporting a win probability higher than the draw or loss odds.
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor’s recent form of D‑W‑L‑D‑W includes a 3‑1 home win over Kayserispor and a 1‑0 home win against Beşiktaş. While they have collected points, the lack of away scoring (only one goal in two recent away games) limits their threat, underscoring the model’s lower win probability for them.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Eyüpspor have won three times, including a 3‑0 home win in 2025, which aligns with the model’s home‑win bias for this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Alanyaspor 1-3 Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
| 25 Aug 2025 | Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Eyüpspor 3-0 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Alanyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
| 21 Dec 2022 | Alanyaspor 3-2 Eyüpspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Team News (Pregame)
Eyüpspor: D. Costa (Red Card)
Alanyaspor: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Eyüpspor to win.
What was the final score of Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor (full time).
When was Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor played Alanyaspor on Sun 30 Aug · 17:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the clear advantage in expected goals and the home‑side's recent dominant performance, the model’s strongest signal points to an Eyüpspor victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
