Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK: Under 2.5 goals
Eyüpspor host Gaziantep FK in a Süper Lig clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goal figures of 1.35. The model’s match‑result odds are dead‑even, but the BTTS probability nudges above 50 % while the over/under split leans just past the halfway line.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs – Eyüpspor have mixed results in their last five games, while Gaziantep FK have failed to pick up a win in the same span. The fixture pits Eyüpspor’s lone recent loss against Gaziantep’s string of defeats, setting up a test of whether the home side can break the deadlock.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 49.4 % probability to the game finishing with fewer than three goals, making the under a sensible selection.
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With Eyüpspor averaging 1.35 expected goals and Gaziantep FK averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Eyüpspor 1.35 + Gaziantep FK 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Eyüpspor at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Gaziantep FK at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor’s recent five‑game run (W 3‑0 vs Gaziantep FK (H), D 1‑1 vs Kayserispor (A), W 4‑0 vs Rizespor (H), D 3‑3 vs Fenerbahçe (A), L 0‑1 vs Beşiktaş (A)) shows they score heavily in wins but can also be shut out, as evidenced by the 0‑1 loss. The mix of solid wins and a narrow defeat suggests they are capable of limiting the total goal tally, supporting the under‑2.5 pick.
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK’s last five results (L 0‑3 vs Eyüpspor (A), L 0‑2 vs Beşiktaş (H), L 1‑2 vs Göztepe (A), L 1‑2 vs Başakşehir (H), D 1‑1 vs Alanyaspor (H)) reveal four defeats with low scoring outputs and only one draw that produced two goals. Their inability to score more than two goals across four games backs the expectation of a low‑scoring encounter.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Eyüpspor have won four times (3‑0, 2‑1, 3‑2, 1‑0) and Gaziantep FK have one win (3‑1 on 2025‑03‑03), indicating a clear historical advantage for the home side, which aligns with the low‑scoring trend of the matchup.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Eyüpspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Gaziantep FK 1-2 Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
| 3 Mar 2025 | Gaziantep FK 3-1 Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Eyüpspor 3-2 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 23 Jul 2022 | Eyüpspor 1-0 Gaziantep FK | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Eyüpspor: No notable injury concerns on record.
Gaziantep FK: B. Ndiaye (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Eyüpspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK (full time).
When was Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Eyüpspor played Gaziantep FK on Sun 23 Aug · 17:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →With both sides averaging 1.35 expected goals and the model flagging a 49.4 % chance of under 2.5 goals, the match is likely to be low‑scoring despite the occasional goal threat each side has shown.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
