Eyüpspor vs Rizespor preview by Lars for TerraceBet

Süper Lig · Regular Season - 5 FT · Eyüpspor 0-2 Rizespor TBC

Eyüpspor vs Rizespor: Rizespor Draw No Bet

Eyüpspor average 1.0 xG at home while Rizespor register 1.5 xG away, yet the model gives Rizespor a 48.8% win chance and a 26.0% draw chance. The combined 74.8% chance of Rizespor avoiding defeat makes a draw‑no‑bet the clearest edge.

Lars — European Football Writer, Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Lars's Take

Headline Pick

Rizespor Draw No Bet Won

Strong · High safety

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No Won

50.9% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Won

54.4% model probability

Both sides sit on seven points from their last five league outings (Eyüpspor WDLLW, Rizespor DWLW), indicating a tight contest where neither side dominates the table. With similar recent form, the fixture hinges on subtle home‑away differentials rather than a simple win‑loss battle.

Lars's Verdict

Strong

Rizespor Draw No Bet Won Strong · High safety

The model assigns a 48.8% win chance and a 26.0% draw chance to Rizespor, meaning they avoid defeat 74.8% of the time.

Show the maths

The model’s match‑result probabilities are 25.2% for Eyüpspor, 26.0% for a draw and 48.8% for a Rizespor win. A draw‑no‑bet on Rizespor pays out if they win or draw, so we sum those two percentages: 48.8% + 26.0% = 74.8%. This combined probability is markedly above a 50% baseline, indicating a solid chance of Rizespor not losing. The away xG of 1.5 versus the home xG of 1.0 further supports the visitors’ scoring advantage, reinforcing the DNB selection.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) Won 50.9% model probability

With Eyüpspor averaging 1.0 expected goals and Rizespor averaging 1.5, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Eyüpspor 1.0, Rizespor 1.5) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 49.1% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 50.9% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Won 54.4% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Eyüpspor 1.0 + Rizespor 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Eyüpspor 1.0 + Rizespor 1.5 = 2.5 combined): 45.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 54.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Eyüpspor at 25.2%, the draw at 26.0%, and Rizespor at 48.8% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Eyüpspor expected goals

1.0

Rizespor expected goals

1.5

Model BTTS probability

50.9%

Most likely scorelines

10-1

12.3%

21-1

12.3%

30-2

9.2%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Eyüpspor

WDLLW

Eyüpspor’s recent five results include a 4‑0 home win over Rizespor and a 2‑1 home win against Alanyaspor, giving them two victories amid three defeats/draws (WDLLW). Those wins show they can produce goals at home, but the surrounding losses temper expectations, suggesting they are unlikely to secure a clean sheet against a defensively strong Rizespor side.

Rizespor

DWLW

Rizespor’s last four league matches feature a 2‑2 home draw with Beşiktaş, a 1‑0 away win at Konyaspor, a 0‑2 home loss to Samsunspor and a 2‑1 away win over Gaziantep FK, totaling seven points. The mix of a solid away win and a narrow home loss indicates they can score on the road while keeping conceded goals low, supporting the view that they will at least draw.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings, results have swung both ways – Eyüpspor’s 4‑0 win in May 2026 and Rizespor’s 3‑0 victory in December 2025 illustrate the volatility, but the recent 1‑2 loss for Eyüpspor in November 2024 aligns with Rizespor’s current edge.

Date	Result	Competition
9 May 2026	Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor	Süper Lig
13 Dec 2025	Rizespor 3-0 Eyüpspor	Süper Lig
20 Apr 2025	Rizespor 1-0 Eyüpspor	Süper Lig
23 Nov 2024	Eyüpspor 1-2 Rizespor	Süper Lig
26 Mar 2023	Eyüpspor 0-1 Rizespor	1. Lig

Team News (Pregame)

Eyüpspor: A. Abdullahi (Injury), D. Costa (Red Card)

Rizespor: K. Alikulov (Knee Injury), M. Diakite (Inactive), V. Mihaila (Inactive), F. Orak (Inactive)

Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?

Rizespor won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Rizespor Draw No Bet.

What was the final score of Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?

Eyüpspor 0-2 Rizespor (full time).

When was Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?

Eyüpspor played Rizespor on Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.

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Given Rizespor’s superior away goal threat and the model’s 74.8% probability that they will not lose, the draw‑no‑bet on Rizespor offers the strongest statistical backing.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Lars

European Football Writer, TerraceBet — Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga