Fiorentina vs Pisa: Fiorentina to win
Fiorentina’s 4.0 expected goals dwarf Pisa’s 1.35 in this Coppa Italia tie, and the model backs a decisive win for the hosts.
Both clubs have limited recent league data, but the single recent result for Fiorentina – a 4-1 home victory over Benevento – showcases their attacking edge, while Pisa’s 1-1 home draw with Empoli underlines a more restrained approach.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates Fiorentina’s win probability at 80.7%, driven by their superior expected goals and recent 4‑1 win over Benevento.
Show the maths
With Fiorentina averaging 4.0 expected goals and Pisa averaging 1.35, the model gives a 71.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 28.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 5.3 (Fiorentina 4.0 + Pisa 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 88.1% chance against 11.9% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fiorentina at 80.7%, the draw at 9.5%, and Pisa at 7.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 6.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fiorentina
Fiorentina’s only listed league result is a 4‑1 home win over Benevento, demonstrating their capacity to score heavily and keep a clean sheet. That performance feeds directly into the model’s high win probability for this fixture.
Pisa
Pisa’s most recent league result is a 1‑1 home draw against Empoli, indicating limited scoring output and a tendency to share points. This modest attacking return aligns with the model’s low probability of a Pisa win.
Head-to-Head
In the last two meetings, Fiorentina have a 1‑0 win and a 0‑0 draw against Pisa, showing a slight historical edge that supports the expected home win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2026 | Fiorentina 1-0 Pisa | Serie A |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Pisa 0-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Fiorentina: F. Parisi (Knee Injury), R. Sottil (Back Injury), F. Croci (Injury), C. Inao Oulai (Injury)
Pisa: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Fiorentina won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Fiorentina to win.
What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Fiorentina 3-0 Pisa (full time).
When was Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Fiorentina played Pisa on Tue 15 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Coppa Italia at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Given the clear scoring gap and the historical 1‑0 win for Fiorentina in the last meeting, the most logical read is a straightforward victory for the home side.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
