Fiorentina vs Pisa: Fiorentina to win
Fiorentina’s 4.0 expected goals dwarf Pisa’s 1.35 in this Coppa Italia tie, and the model backs a decisive win for the hosts.
Both clubs have limited recent league data, but the single recent result for Fiorentina – a 4-1 home victory over Benevento – showcases their attacking edge, while Pisa’s 1-1 home draw with Empoli underlines a more restrained approach.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates Fiorentina’s win probability at 80.7%, driven by their superior expected goals and recent 4‑1 win over Benevento.
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With Fiorentina averaging 4.0 expected goals and Pisa averaging 1.35, the model gives a 71.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 28.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.3 (Fiorentina 4.0 + Pisa 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 88.1% chance against 11.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fiorentina at 80.7%, the draw at 9.5%, and Pisa at 7.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 6.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fiorentina
Fiorentina’s only listed league result is a 4‑1 home win over Benevento, demonstrating their capacity to score heavily and keep a clean sheet. That performance feeds directly into the model’s high win probability for this fixture.
Pisa
Pisa’s most recent league result is a 1‑1 home draw against Empoli, indicating limited scoring output and a tendency to share points. This modest attacking return aligns with the model’s low probability of a Pisa win.
Head-to-Head
In the last two meetings, Fiorentina have a 1‑0 win and a 0‑0 draw against Pisa, showing a slight historical edge that supports the expected home win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2026 | Fiorentina 1-0 Pisa | Serie A |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Pisa 0-0 Fiorentina | Serie A |
Team News
Fiorentina: F. Parisi (Knee Injury), R. Sottil (Back Injury), F. Croci (Injury), C. Inao Oulai (Injury)
Pisa: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Fiorentina to win. The model rates Fiorentina’s win probability at 80.7%, driven by their superior expected goals and recent 4‑1 win over Benevento.
What does the model give Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Fiorentina a 80.7% chance, the draw 9.5%, and Pisa 7.7% to win.
When is Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Fiorentina play Pisa on Tue 15 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Coppa Italia at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Are there any injury concerns for Fiorentina vs Pisa?
Fiorentina: F. Parisi (Knee Injury), R. Sottil (Back Injury), F. Croci (Injury), C. Inao Oulai (Injury). Pisa have no notable injury concerns on record. Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Given the clear scoring gap and the historical 1‑0 win for Fiorentina in the last meeting, the most logical read is a straightforward victory for the home side.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
