Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax: Both teams to score - Yes
Fortuna Sittard average 1.5 expected goals at home while Ajax post 3.0 away, giving a combined 4.5 xG. The model rates the chance of both sides finding the net at 73.5%, the strongest signal across the markets.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs – Fortuna have turned a shaky spell into three wins in five, whereas Ajax have slipped to a 1‑3 loss after three unbeaten outings. The clash pits Fortuna’s home scoring consistency against Ajax’s prolific away attack.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 73.5% probability reflects the combined 4.5 expected goals and recent scoring patterns, making a BTTS outcome highly likely.
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With Fortuna Sittard averaging 1.5 expected goals and Ajax averaging 3.0, the model gives a 73.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 26.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.5 (Fortuna Sittard 1.5 + Ajax 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 82.3% chance against 17.7% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fortuna Sittard at 16.6%, the draw at 15.5%, and Ajax at 67.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 7.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna’s recent form includes a 2‑2 draw at PSV (away) and a 3‑1 victory over Cambuur (home), showing they can score against strong opposition. Their 0‑2 loss to AZ Alkmaar (home) and subsequent 3‑2 win at Groningen (away) demonstrate they also concede, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides scoring in this match.
Ajax
Ajax have scored in a 2‑0 win at PEC Zwolle (away) and a 4‑0 win at Telstar (away), confirming their sharp attacking edge on the road. The 1‑3 loss to PSV Eindhoven (home) shows they are vulnerable at the back, supporting a BTTS outcome.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Ajax have won 4‑1, 3‑1, 2‑0 and 5‑0, while a 2‑2 draw in 2024 also saw both teams score, underscoring a strong tendency for both sides to find the net.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 1-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 18 Sep 2024 | Ajax 5-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Ajax 2-2 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram (Knee Injury), K. Peterson (Inactive), S. Simons (Hamstring Injury), S. Wylin (Inactive)
Ajax: S. Adingra (Foot Injury), D. Blind (Injury), R. Bounida (Injury), M. Carrizo (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?
Ajax won 5-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?
Fortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax (full time).
When was Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?
Fortuna Sittard played Ajax on Sat 12 Sep · 19:00 BST in the Eredivisie at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →With both teams displaying the ability to find the net and to leak goals, the statistical edge points clearly toward a game with goals from both sides.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
