Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar: Both teams to score - Yes
Fortuna Sittard host AZ Alkmaar in a goal‑rich Eredivisie clash. The model’s 90.9% BTTS probability makes both sides scoring the clearest edge.
Both clubs have shown a willingness to find the net – Sittard averaging three goals at home and AZ racking up four away – while recent form hints at open play. The fixture pits a volatile home side against a potent away attacker.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 90.9% chance to both sides scoring, driven by the high expected goals and recent reciprocal goal‑conceding rates.
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With Fortuna Sittard averaging 3.0 expected goals and AZ Alkmaar averaging 4.0, the model gives a 90.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 9.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 7.0 (Fortuna Sittard 3.0 + AZ Alkmaar 4.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 94.5% chance against 5.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fortuna Sittard at 27.9%, the draw at 14.4%, and AZ Alkmaar at 55.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-3 at 4.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard’s last five results include a 1‑2 home loss to Feyenoord and a 3‑2 home win over PEC Zwolle, showing they can both score and be vulnerable. Their 2‑2 away draw with PSV further proves they can keep games open, reinforcing the expectation that they will score against AZ.
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar’s recent two games feature a 2‑0 home win over ADO Den Haag and a 4‑1 away triumph at Utrecht, both involving multiple goals. Their ability to score four away goals against Utrecht confirms they possess the firepower to breach Sittard’s defence.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, both teams scored in two matches – a 4‑3 thriller in December 2025 and a 1‑2 win for AZ in February 2024 – indicating a solid BTTS trend that supports the pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Fortuna Sittard 4-3 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 23 Feb 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 1-0 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 1-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
Fortuna Sittard: I. Marquez (Injury), S. Simons (Hamstring Injury), R. Bayram (Knee Injury)
AZ Alkmaar: J. Clasie (Injury), J. Hornkamp (Ankle Injury), D. Kasius (Groin Injury), A. Natali (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Fortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ Alkmaar (full time).
When was Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Fortuna Sittard played AZ Alkmaar on Sat 22 Aug · 15:30 BST in the Eredivisie at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →Given the strong goal averages and the head‑to‑head record that includes two matches where both teams hit the net, the most logical read is that both sides will find the back of the net again.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
