Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt: Over 2.5 goals
Fredrikstad host Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien with the model assigning a 67.9% chance of over 2.5 goals. The home side’s 1.4 expected goals versus the visitors’ 2.1 set the stage for a high‑scoring encounter.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent form – Fredrikstad have turned a poor start into three straight wins, while Bodo/Glimt sit on an unbeaten five‑match streak. The fixture pits a side that has finally found its defensive footing at home against a travelling offense that has been scoring at will.
Lars's Verdict
The combined expected goals of 3.5 (1.4 + 2.1) translates to a 67.9% model probability that the total exceeds 2.5, making the over the clear favorite.
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With Fredrikstad averaging 1.4 expected goals and Bodo/Glimt averaging 2.1, the model gives a 66.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 33.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Fredrikstad 1.4 + Bodo/Glimt 2.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.9% chance against 32.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fredrikstad at 25.4%, the draw at 21.0%, and Bodo/Glimt at 53.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 9.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad’s last five league results read LLWWW, highlighted by a 1‑0 win at home against Sandefjord and another 1‑0 victory at home versus Kristiansund BK. Those narrow wins, combined with recent defensive solidity (1.0 GA at home), suggest they can keep the score close but still allow the visitors to find the net.
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt have compiled a perfect WWWWW run, including a 4‑0 home drubbing of Lillestrom and a 2‑1 away win at Valerenga. Their ability to score multiple goals against varied opposition, as shown by the 3‑0 wins over Ham‑Kam and Sandefjord, underpins the expectation of a goal‑rich fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent five meetings, Bodo/Glimt have won four times, including a 1‑0 win on 2026‑07‑17 and a 5‑0 thrashing on 2025‑11‑30, while only a 2‑2 draw in 2024‑11‑10 offered both sides a goal. The head‑to‑head record leans heavily toward the visitors scoring, reinforcing the over‑2.5 outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2026 | Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 16 Jul 2025 | Fredrikstad 0-1 Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 1 Apr 2024 | Fredrikstad 0-2 Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Fredrikstad: S. Kvile (Knee Injury), K. Okpaleke (Injury), S. Sorlokk (Foot Injury), S. Leach (Injury)
Bodo/Glimt: H. Evjen (Knee Injury), A. Mikkelsen (Groin Injury), I. Sjong (Injury), M. Bro Hansen (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt?
Fredrikstad 1-2 Bodo/Glimt (full time).
When was Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt?
Fredrikstad played Bodo/Glimt on Fri 4 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Fredrikstad Stadion.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →With the visitors’ firepower consistently outpacing the hosts’ modest output, the match is primed for more than two goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
