Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK: Fredrikstad to win
Fredrikstad’s 1.4 expected goals against Kristiansund’s 0.6 set the stage for a home‑side advantage. The model backs a 56.5% win probability for the hosts.
Both sides have struggled to find consistency, but Fredrikstad’s recent surge from three straight defeats to two wins gives them momentum heading into the Eliteserien clash. Kristiansund, meanwhile, have salvaged a win only in their last five games, leaving them under pressure to avoid another loss.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Fredrikstad’s win probability at 56.5%, the highest single‑outcome chance among the available markets.
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With Fredrikstad averaging 1.4 expected goals and Kristiansund BK averaging 0.6, the model gives a 66.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 34.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Fredrikstad 1.4 + Kristiansund BK 0.6) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fredrikstad at 56.5%, the draw at 27.5%, and Kristiansund BK at 15.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 18.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad’s last five league results (L 0‑2 vs Lillestrom, L 0‑1 vs Bodo/Glimt, L 0‑4 vs Rosenborg, W 1‑0 vs Sandefjord, W 1‑0 vs Start) show a recent turnaround with two consecutive 1‑0 wins, indicating a tightening defence and a knack for narrow victories—exactly the profile needed for a 1‑0 win in this fixture. The earlier three defeats, all without scoring, highlight the importance of the recent attacking spark for the win pick.
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund’s five‑game stretch (L 0‑3 vs Rosenborg, D 0‑0 vs Sarpsborg 08, L 1‑2 vs Start, L 1‑2 vs KFUM Oslo, W 2‑1 vs Molde) includes only one win and a goalless draw, evidencing limited offensive output and a leaky defence that concedes 1.9 away goals per game. This form underlines their vulnerability to a home side with a higher scoring rate, supporting the pick of a Fredrikstad win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Fredrikstad have won twice (3‑1 in 2025 and 1‑0 in 2025) while Kristiansund have won twice (2‑0 in 2026 and 3‑1 in 2024) and there’s one draw (1‑1 in 2024). The split favours the hosts in recent decisive matches, reinforcing the win outlook for Fredrikstad.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Kristiansund BK 2-0 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Fredrikstad 3-1 Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 11 May 2025 | Kristiansund BK 0-1 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 3 Nov 2024 | Fredrikstad 1-1 Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Kristiansund BK 3-1 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Fredrikstad: S. Kvile (Knee Injury), K. Okpaleke (Injury), S. Sorlokk (Foot Injury), S. Leach (Injury)
Kristiansund BK: N. Finset (International duty), A. Munksgaard (Foot Injury), D. Tufekcic (Thigh Injury), H. Bruseth (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Fredrikstad won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Fredrikstad to win.
What was the final score of Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Fredrikstad 1-0 Kristiansund BK (full time).
When was Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Fredrikstad played Kristiansund BK on Sun 16 Aug · 18:15 BST in the Eliteserien at Fredrikstad Stadion.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →With the statistical edge firmly on Fredrikstad and the recent form confirming their upward trajectory, the most logical read is a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
