Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: Fredrikstad to win
Fredrikstad come in on a four‑game winning streak and a 1.3 expected‑goals rate, while Sarpsborg 08 sit on a mixed run and a 1.1 xG. The model rates a Fredrikstad win at 41.1 % – the highest single outcome probability of the three‑way split.
Both sides have been inconsistent this season, but the home side’s recent surge and superior goal threat give them the edge in this Eliteserien clash.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Fredrikstad a 41.1 % chance of victory, the highest probability among the three possible outcomes.
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With Fredrikstad averaging 1.3 expected goals and Sarpsborg 08 FF averaging 1.1, the model gives a 51.5% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 48.5% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Fredrikstad 1.3 + Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.1) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fredrikstad at 41.1%, the draw at 27.5%, and Sarpsborg 08 FF at 31.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 13.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad’s last five league results read WWWWL, including a 1‑0 win at home against Sandefjord and a 4‑1 away thrashing of Lillestrøm. Those victories show a consistent ability to score and keep clean sheets, reinforcing the expectation that they will secure three points here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08’s recent form DLLDD features a 3‑3 away draw with Molde and a 0‑0 away stalemate at Tromsø. The three draws indicate they can hold their own defensively but struggle to convert chances, which dampens their chance of taking all three points.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings Fredrikstad have won three times (2‑1 in March, 2‑0 in November, 1‑0 in September) and Sarpsborg only once (2‑1 in May) with one draw, a record that favours a Fredrikstad win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 8 Mar 2026 | Fredrikstad 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF | NM Cupen |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 1 Jun 2025 | Fredrikstad 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
Team News
Fredrikstad: F. Ghebreyohannes (Injury), S. Kvile (Knee Injury), J. Nysveen (Injury), K. Okpaleke (Injury)
Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen (Injury), S. Rosted (Ankle Injury), M. Svenningsen Gronn (Ankle Injury), B. Utvik (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Fredrikstad to win. The model assigns Fredrikstad a 41.1 % chance of victory, the highest probability among the three possible outcomes.
What does the model give Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Fredrikstad a 41.1% chance, the draw 27.5%, and Sarpsborg 08 FF 31.4% to win.
When is Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Fredrikstad play Sarpsborg 08 FF on Sun 13 Sep · 18:15 BST in the Eliteserien at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Are there any injury concerns for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Fredrikstad: F. Ghebreyohannes (Injury), S. Kvile (Knee Injury), J. Nysveen (Injury), K. Okpaleke (Injury). Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen (Injury), S. Rosted (Ankle Injury), M. Svenningsen Gronn (Ankle Injury), B. Utvik (Yellow Cards). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →All indicators – form, expected goals and defensive solidity – converge on a home win, making Fredrikstad the logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
