Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK: Göztepe to win
Göztepe's 1.35 expected goals give them a small statistical edge over Gaziantep FK's 1.0. The model rates a home win at 44.8% versus a 27.7% away win probability.
Both clubs have struggled to find consistency, with Göztepe coming off a 0‑3 loss at Samsunspor and a 0‑1 defeat to Gençlerbirliği, while Gaziantep FK has dropped points in four of their last five league games, including a recent 1‑2 loss to Rizespor.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Göztepe a 44.8% chance to win, the highest single‑outcome probability among the three possibilities.
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With Göztepe averaging 1.35 expected goals and Gaziantep FK averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Göztepe 1.35 + Gaziantep FK 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Göztepe at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Gaziantep FK at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Göztepe
Göztepe's recent four‑match run reads L‑D‑L‑L, highlighted by a 0‑3 defeat at Samsunspor and a 0‑1 loss to Gençlerbirliği. The 3‑3 draw away at Samsunspor shows they can score, but the three losses underline a defensive fragility that still leaves them vulnerable to conceding, supporting a close contest but not ruling out a narrow home win.
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK have slipped to L‑L‑D‑W‑L, with a 1‑2 loss to Başakşehir, a 1‑1 home draw with Alanyaspor, and a 1‑0 away win over Eyüpspor. The recent 1‑2 defeat to Rizespor demonstrates they still concede despite a clean‑sheet away record overall, suggesting they may struggle to keep Göztepe at bay.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Göztepe have won three times (2‑1, 1‑0, 1‑0), Gaziantep FK have one win (2‑1), and there is one draw (1‑1), indicating a clear historical advantage for Göztepe that backs the home win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Göztepe 2-1 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Gaziantep FK 0-1 Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 7 Apr 2025 | Göztepe 1-1 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 6 Feb 2025 | Göztepe 1-0 Gaziantep FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| 1 Nov 2024 | Gaziantep FK 2-1 Göztepe | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Göztepe: Allan Godoi (Injury), A. Antunes (Inactive), F. Bayir (Inactive), I. Sabra (Ankle Injury)
Gaziantep FK: J. Bacuna (Red Card), N. Sangare (Inactive), B. Ndiaye (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK won 4-2. Our pre-match pick was Göztepe to win.
What was the final score of Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Göztepe 2-4 Gaziantep FK (full time).
When was Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK?
Göztepe played Gaziantep FK on Mon 7 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the modest xG advantage, the recent form, and a head‑to‑head record that favours Göztepe, the most logical read is a home victory for Göztepe.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
