Göztepe vs Rizespor: Rizespor to win
Rizespor’s 1.7 expected goals per game outpace Göztepe’s 1.0, and the model assigns a 53.8% chance of an away win. The numbers point to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent form: Göztepe have struggled to find a win in five games, while Rizespor have collected three wins from their last five outings. The clash pits a defensively porous side against a side that concedes rarely away.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 53.8% win probability for Rizespor, driven by their superior expected goals and defensive record, makes this the strongest pick.
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With Göztepe averaging 1.0 expected goals and Rizespor averaging 1.7, the model gives a 51.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 48.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Göztepe 1.0 + Rizespor 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Göztepe at 22.2%, the draw at 24.0%, and Rizespor at 53.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 11.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Göztepe
Göztepe’s last five league results read D‑L‑L‑L‑D, including a 2‑2 draw at Alanyaspor (A) and a 2‑4 home loss to Gaziantep FK (H). The inability to secure a win in five games and the recent heavy home defeat highlight a lack of offensive punch and defensive frailty, which undermines any chance of a home victory here.
Rizespor
Rizespor have posted a WLWLW record, with a 1‑0 away win at Konyaspor (A) and a 2‑0 away win at Eyüpspor (A) bookending two losses – a 0‑2 home defeat to Samsunspor (H) and a 0‑1 home loss to Alanyaspor (H). The two away victories demonstrate that the team can score and keep clean sheets on the road, reinforcing the likelihood of an away win in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Göztepe have won three times, including a 3‑1 win on 2026‑01‑19, while Rizespor’s biggest triumph was a 6‑3 win on 2025‑05‑18. The head‑to‑head record shows Göztepe’s occasional edge, but the high‑scoring Rizespor win aligns with the model’s expected goal advantage for the visitors.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan 2026 | Göztepe 3-1 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Rizespor 0-3 Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 18 May 2025 | Rizespor 6-3 Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Göztepe 3-0 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 16 May 2023 | Göztepe 3-3 Rizespor | 1. Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Göztepe: Allan Godoi (Injury), F. Bayir (Inactive), O. Bayrak (Red Card), G. Bayrakdar (Inactive)
Rizespor: K. Alikulov (Knee Injury), M. Diakite (Inactive), V. Mihaila (Inactive), F. Orak (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Göztepe and Rizespor drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Rizespor to win.
What was the final score of Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Göztepe 2-2 Rizespor (full time).
When was Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Göztepe played Rizespor on Sun 20 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →These statistical edges translate into a clear betting edge for the visitors, making a straight win the most logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
