Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor: Both teams to score - No
Gaziantep FK and Rizespor both sit on a 1.0 expected‑goals mark, indicating a balanced attacking output. The model puts a 60 % probability that both sides will fail to find the net, making a go‑no‑goal scenario the most likely outcome.
Both clubs arrive with limited recent success – Gaziantep have endured four defeats and a draw in their last five, while Rizespor’s form reads loss, draw, win, loss in the same span. Their defensive records – one goal conceded per game for Gaziantep at home and none against for Rizespor away – suggest a cautious encounter.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 60 % chance that neither club will score, reflecting their mirrored expected‑goals and recent defensive form.
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With Gaziantep FK averaging 1.0 expected goals and Rizespor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Gaziantep FK 1.0 + Rizespor 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Gaziantep FK at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Rizespor at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep’s recent run includes a 0‑3 loss to Eyüpspor (away), a 0‑2 defeat at home to Beşiktaş, and a 1‑1 draw with Alanyaspor at home. The heavy defeats and low‑scoring draw highlight a struggling attack, reinforcing the expectation that they may fail to score against a defensively disciplined Rizespor.
Rizespor
Rizespor’s last five feature a 0‑4 loss away at Eyüpspor, a 2‑2 home draw with Beşiktaş, and a 1‑0 away win over Konyaspor. While they have managed to keep a clean sheet in the win, the heavy loss and the draw where both sides scored suggest they are not consistently finding the net, supporting a ‘no‑BTTS’ outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, only the 2‑2 draw produced both teams on the scoresheet; the other four matches (2‑1, 5‑2, 2‑0, 1‑0) saw a single scorer or a clear winner, underscoring a tendency toward low‑scoring outcomes that backs the ‘Both teams to score – No’ pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 | Rizespor 2-1 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 17 Dec 2025 | Rizespor 5-2 Gaziantep FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Gaziantep FK 2-2 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 3 May 2025 | Rizespor 2-0 Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 9 Dec 2024 | Gaziantep FK 1-0 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Gaziantep FK: B. Ndiaye (Injury)
Rizespor: K. Alikulov (Knee Injury), M. Diakite (Inactive), V. Mihaila (Inactive), F. Orak (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Rizespor won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.
What was the final score of Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Gaziantep FK 1-2 Rizespor (full time).
When was Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor?
Gaziantep FK played Rizespor on Sat 29 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Süper Lig at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →With two sides equally matched on paper and both showing defensive solidity, the most logical expectation is a match where at least one side stays blank.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
