Genoa vs Ascoli: Ascoli to win
Genoa average 1.2 xG at home while Ascoli sit at 1.35 away, yet the model rates Ascoli’s win chance at 40.2% versus Genoa’s 33.2%. The slight edge in expected goals and a higher win probability drive the pick.
Both sides enter the Coppa Italia clash with contrasting recent form – Genoa have struggled to find the net in five league outings, whereas Ascoli sit on a fresh 3‑1 victory.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Ascoli a 40.2% chance of victory, the highest single probability among the three outcomes.
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With Genoa averaging 1.2 expected goals and Ascoli averaging 1.35, the model gives a 51.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 48.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Genoa 1.2 + Ascoli 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 53.1% chance against 46.9% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Genoa at 33.2%, the draw at 26.6%, and Ascoli at 40.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Genoa
Genoa’s recent league slate includes a 0‑2 loss to Como at home, a 1‑2 defeat to AC Milan, and two goalless draws against Atalanta and Fiorentina away. Conceding in four of five matches and failing to score in three indicates a muted attack and a vulnerable defence, which weakens their chances of securing a win here.
Ascoli
Ascoli’s only listed league result is a 3‑1 home win over Potenza, showing they can score three goals when in form. Although no away fixtures are listed, their away xG of 1.35 suggests they can create chances on the road, bolstering confidence in an upset.
Head-to-Head
In the three recent meetings, Genoa have edged Ascoli 2‑1 and 3‑2, while a 0‑0 draw in 2022 shows a tightly contested fixture – the mixed record neither favours nor rules out an Ascoli win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 May 2023 | Genoa 2-1 Ascoli | Serie B |
| 11 Dec 2022 | Ascoli 0-0 Genoa | Serie B |
| 3 Dec 2019 | Genoa 3-2 Ascoli | Coppa Italia |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Genoa vs Ascoli?
Genoa won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Ascoli to win.
What was the final score of Genoa vs Ascoli?
Genoa 4-1 Ascoli (full time).
When was Genoa vs Ascoli?
Genoa played Ascoli on Sun 16 Aug · 17:30 BST in the Coppa Italia at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Combined with a head‑to‑head record that favours Genoa but shows tight scorelines, the model’s higher win probability for Ascoli points to a likely upset.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
