Genoa vs Frosinone: Frosinone to win
Genoa’s 0.5 xG at home meets Frosinone’s 3.0 xG on the road, and the model assigns an 86.4% win probability to the visitors. Expect a one‑sided affair with the Città di Genova side under pressure from a lethal Frosinone attack.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form: Genoa have lost their last four league matches, while Frosinone have recovered from a defeat to post two wins in a row. The disparity in goal averages – 0.5 for‑ and 3.0 against‑ for Genoa versus 3.0 for‑ and 0.0 against‑ for Frosinone away – sets up a clear advantage for the visitors.
Robbo's Verdict
The model gives Frosinone an 86.4% chance of victory, driven by their superior expected goals and recent winning streak.
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With Genoa averaging 0.5 expected goals and Frosinone averaging 3.0, the model gives a 62.8% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 37.2% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Genoa 0.5 + Frosinone 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.5% chance against 32.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Genoa at 3.7%, the draw at 9.6%, and Frosinone at 86.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-2 at 13.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Genoa
Genoa’s last five league outings have been all defeats – a 0‑1 loss at Lecce, 0‑2 at home to Napoli, 0‑1 away to Lazio and a 1‑4 home loss to Como. The string of four‑goal defeats highlights defensive frailty and an inability to score, which underpins the low win probability for the home side.
Frosinone
Frosinone’s recent run shows a loss to Juventus (0‑1) followed by back‑to‑back victories: a 3‑0 away win over Fiorentina and a 3‑2 home win against Venezia. Scoring six goals in the last two matches demonstrates a potent attack that directly fuels the model’s 86.4% win expectation.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, the teams have drawn twice (1‑1 in March 2024 and 0‑0 in 2019), Frosinone have won twice (2‑1 in Nov 2023 and 3‑2 in May 2023), and Genoa have won once (1‑0 in Dec 2022), indicating a slight edge for Frosinone that aligns with the model’s win forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar 2024 | Genoa 1-1 Frosinone | Serie A |
| 26 Nov 2023 | Frosinone 2-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| 13 May 2023 | Frosinone 3-2 Genoa | Serie B |
| 18 Dec 2022 | Genoa 1-0 Frosinone | Serie B |
| 3 Mar 2019 | Genoa 0-0 Frosinone | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Genoa: C. Drameh (Inactive), E. Havel (Thigh Injury), L. Venturino (Knee Injury), H. J. Traore (Muscle Injury)
Frosinone: F. Ghedjemis (Calf Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Genoa vs Frosinone?
Genoa and Frosinone drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Frosinone to win.
What was the final score of Genoa vs Frosinone?
Genoa 1-1 Frosinone (full time).
When was Genoa vs Frosinone?
Genoa played Frosinone on Sat 12 Sep · 14:00 BST in the Serie A at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →All indicators point to a dominant performance from Frosinone, making the match‑result market the most decisive pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
