Genoa vs Sudtirol: Over 2.5 goals
Genoa’s 4.0 expected goals eclipse Sudtirol’s 3.0 as the Coppa Italia tie promises plenty of firepower. The model rates the match as a 94.5% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals.
In the Coppa Italia, Genoa host Sudtirol in a clash that pits the home side’s prolific scoring against the visitors’ solid away numbers. Both teams have shown the ability to find the net regularly in recent league play.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 94.5% probability to more than two and a half goals, making the over the clear favorite.
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With Genoa averaging 4.0 expected goals and Sudtirol averaging 3.0, the model gives a 90.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 9.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 7.0 (Genoa 4.0 + Sudtirol 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 94.5% chance against 5.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Genoa at 55.2%, the draw at 14.4%, and Sudtirol at 27.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-2 at 4.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Genoa
Genoa’s recent league form includes a 4‑1 home win over Ascoli, showing they can dominate opponents and score freely. Their overall form tag reads ‘W’, confirming a winning trend that supports a strong attacking output in this fixture.
Sudtirol
Sudtirol’s latest league outing was a 2‑2 away draw with Catanzaro, indicating they are comfortable finding the net on the road while also conceding. Their form tag ‘D’ reflects a steady, if not dominant, performance that still contributes to the goal tally.
Head-to-Head
In the last two meetings, Genoa beat Sudtirol 2‑0 on 8 Dec 2022, and the teams drew 0‑0 on 1 May 2023, suggesting the visitors can hold their own but the home side still has a scoring edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2023 | Sudtirol 0-0 Genoa | Serie B |
| 8 Dec 2022 | Genoa 2-0 Sudtirol | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Genoa: C. Drameh (Inactive), E. Havel (Thigh Injury), L. Venturino (Knee Injury), H. J. Traore (Muscle Injury)
Sudtirol: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Genoa won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Genoa 1-0 Sudtirol (full time).
When was Genoa vs Sudtirol?
Genoa played Sudtirol on Tue 15 Sep · 17:00 BST in the Coppa Italia at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →With the numbers pointing to a goal‑rich affair, the safest betting angle follows the model’s strongest signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
