Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau: Austria Lustenau to win
Grazer AK and Austria Lustenau sit on identical expected‑goal lines (1.35 each), but the market undervalues Lustenau’s win probability.
Both clubs have been inconsistent over their last five league outings – Grazer AK with a draw‑win‑loss string and Lustenau with a solitary draw – making the opening fixture a test of who can convert their modest xG into a decisive result.
Lars's Verdict
Back Lustenau to win at 3.65 as the model’s win probability exceeds the market price by a clear margin.
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With Grazer AK averaging 1.35 expected goals and Austria Lustenau averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Grazer AK 1.35 + Austria Lustenau 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Grazer AK at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Austria Lustenau at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Grazer AK
Grazer AK’s recent league run features a 2‑2 home draw against SCR Altach, followed by an impressive 3‑0 away victory over FC BW Linz, then a 0‑3 away loss to Lask Linz. The draw and win demonstrate offensive capability, but the heavy defeat highlights defensive frailty – a mix that suggests they are unlikely to dominate this fixture.
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau’s latest league appearance was a 1‑1 home draw versus Ried, showing they can both score and concede. With only one result listed, the team’s recent form points to a cautious approach, reinforcing the view that a narrow win is plausible rather than a high‑scoring affair.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, each side has secured a win, with Lustenau’s 2‑1 victory in July 2021 and a 0‑0 stalemate in November 2021, indicating a balanced rivalry that leans slightly toward a close result.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2021 | Grazer AK 0-0 Austria Lustenau | 2. Liga |
| 25 Jul 2021 | Austria Lustenau 2-1 Grazer AK | 2. Liga |
| 12 May 2021 | Grazer AK 2-0 Austria Lustenau | 2. Liga |
| 11 Dec 2020 | Austria Lustenau 3-1 Grazer AK | 2. Liga |
| 6 Jun 2020 | Grazer AK 1-1 Austria Lustenau | 2. Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau?
Grazer AK won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Austria Lustenau to win.
What was the final score of Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau?
Grazer AK 2-1 Austria Lustenau (full time).
When was Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau?
Grazer AK played Austria Lustenau on Sat 8 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Merkur-Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →With the model assigning a 37.1% win probability to Lustenau versus the market’s implied 27.4%, the Austrian side is significantly undervalued.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
