Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna: Both teams to score - Yes
Grazer AK host Austria Vienna in a tightly balanced Austrian Bundesliga clash, with both sides averaging one expected goal. The model assigns a 40 % chance both teams will find the net, making BTTS the clearest edge.
Grazer AK have been volatile at home, conceding just half a goal per game but struggling to convert chances, while Austria Vienna’s away defence leaks 2.3 goals per match. Both clubs sit on identical expected‑goal figures (1.0 each), suggesting a match where attacking intent will meet defensive frailties.
Lars's Verdict
Both Grazer AK and Austria Vienna are likely to score, given their matched expected‑goal rates and recent games showing they can each find the net twice.
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With Grazer AK averaging 1.0 expected goals and Austria Vienna averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Grazer AK 1.0 + Austria Vienna 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Grazer AK at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Austria Vienna at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Grazer AK
Grazer AK’s last five league results read W‑L‑L‑D‑W. They beat SCR Altach 2‑1 away and earlier edged Austria Lustenau 2‑1 at home, proving they can score two goals when in form. The intervening heavy 0‑8 loss to Rapid Vienna and a 0‑1 defeat to Ried underline their defensive volatility, but the two recent wins suggest they will at least get on the scoresheet here.
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna’s recent form is L‑W‑L‑L‑W. They secured a 2‑0 away win over TSV Hartberg and a 2‑1 home victory against Austria Lustenau, showing they can produce two goals even on the road. The three defeats, including a narrow 0‑1 loss to WSG Wattens, highlight inconsistency but not an inability to score, supporting a BTTS outcome.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Austria Vienna have won four times (2‑0, 2‑1, 2‑1, and 2‑1) and one match ended 2‑2, indicating Vienna’s scoring dominance but also that both sides have historically hit the net.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Austria Vienna 2-0 Grazer AK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Austria Vienna 2-1 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Grazer AK 2-2 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Grazer AK 1-2 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Austria Vienna 2-1 Grazer AK | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
Grazer AK and Austria Vienna drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
Grazer AK 2-2 Austria Vienna (full time).
When was Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
Grazer AK played Austria Vienna on Sat 19 Sep · 18:30 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Merkur-Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →With each side averaging one expected goal and both having recent matches where they scored at least twice, the model’s 40 % BTTS probability stands out as the most actionable insight.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
