Groningen vs PEC Zwolle: Both teams to score - Yes
Groningen's 2.0 expected goals face PEC Zwolle's 1.7, while the model rates the match as 70.6% likely to see both sides on the scoresheet.
Both teams come into the clash with recent form that hints at volatility – Groningen have slipped to a loss‑draw after two wins, and Zwolle have managed only one win in five, leaving both sides eager to reset their trajectories.
Lars's Verdict
Both Groningen and PEC Zwolle are likely to hit the net, given their recent scoring patterns and the model's 70.6% BTTS probability.
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With Groningen averaging 2.0 expected goals and PEC Zwolle averaging 1.7, the model gives a 70.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.7 (Groningen 2.0 + PEC Zwolle 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 71.4% chance against 28.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Groningen at 45.3%, the draw at 21.4%, and PEC Zwolle at 33.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 8.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Groningen
Groningen have scored in each of their last five league matches, notably a 2‑1 home win over Utrecht and a 4‑1 away thrashing of ADO Den Haag. Their recent loss 2‑3 at home to Fortuna Sittard and a 2‑2 draw with Twente show they can also concede, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides scoring in the upcoming fixture.
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle's recent five games include a 2‑0 away win at Heerenveen and a 2‑2 away draw with Sparta Rotterdam, evidencing their ability to score on the road. Their defeats to Ajax (0‑2) and NEC Nijmegen (1‑3) show they also concede, supporting a scenario where both teams find the net.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, three have ended in a draw – including a 1‑1 stalemate this March – highlighting a propensity for both sides to score, which aligns with the BTTS pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 2026 | PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Groningen 2-2 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 18 May 2025 | PEC Zwolle 2-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Groningen 0-0 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 5 Aug 2023 | PEC Zwolle 0-0 Groningen | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News
Groningen: M. Jeng (Leg Injury), T. Mercera (Injury), R. Metu (Injury), M. Rente (Injury)
PEC Zwolle: J. Burger (Knock), F. Krastev (Achilles Tendon Injury), Y. Namli (Knee Injury), S. Floranus (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Both teams to score - Yes. Both Groningen and PEC Zwolle are likely to hit the net, given their recent scoring patterns and the model's 70.6% BTTS probability.
What does the model give Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Groningen a 45.3% chance, the draw 21.4%, and PEC Zwolle 33.3% to win.
When is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Groningen play PEC Zwolle on Fri 18 Sep · 19:00 BST in the Eredivisie at Euroborg.
Are there any injury concerns for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Groningen: M. Jeng (Leg Injury), T. Mercera (Injury), R. Metu (Injury), M. Rente (Injury). PEC Zwolle: J. Burger (Knock), F. Krastev (Achilles Tendon Injury), Y. Namli (Knee Injury), S. Floranus (Red Card). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →With both sides averaging close to two goals per game and the model assigning a 70.6% chance to both sides scoring, the BTTS market stands out as the clearest reading.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
